Australian dollars Canadian dollars Euros Hong Kong dollars Japanese yen New Zealand dollars Pounds sterling Singapore dollars South African rand Swiss francs US dollars To CCY Please select. Our wholesale currency exchange rates for money transfers, are significantly more competitive than bank foreign exchange rates. Being Australasian based, we specialise in knowing what drives NZD and AUD currency conversion rates NZD to AUD Overview : Australia is New Zealands biggest trading partner. Therefore the performance of the New Zealand economy and the NZD, is closely linked to the Australian economy and AUD. Due to this extremely close correlation, when compared to other currency pairs, the NZD to AUD exchange rate remains one of the most stable. The extent of the move has surprised and reflects the poor performance of the AUD and relative demand for the NZD over the week. Levels look appealing to AUD buyers at present. Resistance is nearby around support and then support The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 29th November pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The correction brings the cross back to a more neutral level based on recent ranges at present which has us favouring mixed trade next week given the lack of critical data coming out of either country. Levels to watch are and The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 22nd November pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has continued to rally in trade against the Australian dollar since Friday. This move looks to offer reasonable levels for AUD buyers heading into next week. NZD highs around is immediate resistance although would be the target for more patient AUD buyers. Data next week looks highly unlikely to play a key role in direction The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 15th November pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has eased further in trade against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Lows near highs which have been seen came on the back of the NZD selling after the large earthquake in the upper south island, although sentiment from last week has been the prevailing driver. GDT dairy price data is due overnight and Australian employment will feature on Thursday. Expect more choppy trade, although ranges will be much reduced on last week. Next week should be a quieter one with liquidity in the NZD and AUD and the Australian employment data Thursday being the key drivers The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 8th November pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Australian since our last report. Gains reached highs around lows in trade yesterday morning, although have moderated in trade since. This week is set to be a very busy one for the cross with most of the action set for the next 24 hours. Next week will be busy for the cross with the RBA on Tuesday and NZ employment data on Wednesday. We lack a strong view although support in the broad resistance is crucial to the downside. Resistance is seen at The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 25th October pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Selling of NZ dollars around capped the rally on Friday night and weakness in the NZD so far this week has seen the cross ease in recent trade. The move comes on the back of a combination of a better than expected NZ inflation report and weaker than expected Australian employment data yesterday. Look for fresh direction next week on Wednesday when we receive inflation data for the third quarter in Australia. Initial resistance is seen in the region support. This morning saw the better than expected NZ data propel the cross to highs around lows. We continue to favour the AUD over the NZD although the solid bounce from the lows and size of the recent downswing when combined with numerous data events next week makes picking the next swing more difficult The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 11th October pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has continued to ease against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Support at resistance has broken in overnight trade, although the move has been relatively muted so far given the lack of fresh economic indicator direction. We continue to favour buying the AUD over the NZD targeting levels near this week. The move looks to have reflected the recent momentum and slightly more favourable outlook for Australian interest rates, although the soft GDT dairy auction also weighed. For now NZ dollar support has formed at resistance this week and represents the first barrier to another move lower for the NZD. First resistance is nearby in the area support. A quiet calendar from both countries next week looks likely to temper the ranges. We favour buying AUD, especially should this partial NZD bounce extend to second resistance around support The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 4th October pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is trading largely unchanged in trade against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. We favour buying AUD on rallies towards the top of the range based on the recent momentum and respective outlooks for monetary policy, although the coming hours will be interesting. Trade in the local currency has been understandably contained, although some gains were seen against the greenback yesterday on the back of the positive momentum that was enjoyed by the commodity currencies as news emerged of an agreed OPEC oil production cutback at the Algeria producer talks. The surprise news sent the price of crude jumping in trade early yesterday, which in turn saw the AUD rise to against the USD during Asian trade. Impact on this currency pair The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 27th September pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is little changed against the Australian dollar since our commentary on Friday. Further falls were seen in the interim to around the level by the end of the day as the market continued to digest the additional divergence in monetary policy themes from the respective central banks. The move comes on the back of a disappointing latest GDT dairy auction and a mildly more dovish than expected read on the RBNZ OCR statement, which continues to leave the door open for further rate cuts. This contrasted with those comments from RBA Governor Lowe which pointed to flexibility on inflation and the RBA minutes which noted that monetary policy is consistent with its goals on inflation and growth. Rate week is quiet as far as data goes which has us favouring selling any NZD rallies in this cross to first resistance around support The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 20th September pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The move comes as the AUD rallied well yesterday, perhaps in part due to the reviewed RBA Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. This looks to afford greater flexibility on the inflation target, which suggests the bar to the next rate cut may be set higher. It has been a relatively quiet week overall which saw the key data from both countries come in close enough to expectations to cause only limited volatility. For now momentum remains positive for the NZD, although selling has managed to cap the rally around so far. Initial support is seen around resistance The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 13th September pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is largely unchanged against the Australian dollar since our last report. The lack of overall movement reflects the lack of new critical incoming data in the interim which is again the case this week until Thursday. For now the momentum remains strong for the NZD, with first resistance noted at recent highs up rising uptrend around the area support. The move reflects the outperformance of the NZD in the wake of the weaker than expected US data and comes on the back of another solid rise in the latest GDT dairy auction. Australian GDP data, which was softer than expected, added to the momentum. Albeit the data when considered in isolation, points to a solid growth story across the Tasman. We continue to favour the AUD over the NZD at present, although the momentum continues to favour the NZD upside for now. Expectations are near unanimous for no change today so look to the commentary for direction. However, neither managed to push the cross beyond the highs lows. Next week looks set to a be a big one for the cross starting with the key RBA interest rate decision on Tuesday and Australian Q2 GDP data on Wednesday. The lack of volatility was to be expected given the USD Jackson Hole focus and lack of important data from either country. Indicators of interest start with Australian building approvals numbers this afternoon. Highs on the week have been around the level although at least till now a lack of news flow and follow through momentum has dampened the chance of any further gains. Volatility in the cross may pick-up overnight when headlines come out of Jackson Hole although moves should be liquidity driven in the NZD or AUD rather than cross flow itself given the similar impact news should have on both currencies. There will be little to go on for the cross this week as far as economic leads go which has us favouring a contained range on balance. The move comes on the back of better than expected NZ data which include a large jump in dairy pricing and better than expected tomorrow data and Australian data which has been more mixed in tone overall. For now highs around lows has limited the rally although with little on the calendar of any note from either country next week this move may looks capable of extending to resistance near support The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 16th August pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade against the Australian dollar this week. Ranges have been relatively tight since our report on Friday, although this could well change over coming days with employment data due from both countries. The volatility seen immediately after this announcement saw the cross quickly snap to around highs lows as the market deemed the accompanying statement as insufficiently dovish given the extent of cuts already factored. Look for employment indicators from both countries to drive trade next week NZ on Wednesday, Australia on Thursday. For now we favour more rangy conditions with the support level resistance holding the key to any sustained push for the NZ dollar lower The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 9th August pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall against its Australian counterpart since our report on Friday. The move is a continuation of the trend in recent days which has seen the AUD in greater demand than the NZD. The rally earlier in the week reversed from around the level after the RBA rate decision which saw the AUD oddly rally by over 1 c against the USD in the hours after the statement. Key NZD support AUD resistance is noted at Look to the US data later today for the possibility of further volatility. Look for this decision and the NZ employment data tomorrow to drive the cross over the days ahead. Some NZD resistance should be expected around supportalthough key resistance lies ahead of support. Highs near lows have been seen so far and come ahead of first resistance in the zone support. There has been little to go on for the cross since our report, although the upwards adjustment looks to be in response to the general weakness in commodity prices overnight AUD. Wednesday will be the key day for the cross this week as the market waits to see whether the Australian inflation data satisfies the criteria for a RBA rate cut next week. We are a little surprised by the stubbornness of the cross to not move lower after the statement although favour the AUD over the NZD targeting strength into the zone to sell. Another sharp decline has been seen this morning after the release by the RBNZ of a discussion paper aimed at curbing further lending to the residential property sector. The move comes on the back many factors which forex the more certain political environment in Australia after the incumbent government was seen remaining in power. The strong full-time employment numbers released out of Australia yesterday added to the cross pressure and has us favouring a buy AUD over NZD mentality on rallies in this. Look for first resistance now at Look to NZ inflation data on Monday for first influence The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 12th July pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has eased in recent trade against the Australian dollar on the back of the emerging clarity around the outcome of the Australian election that will see the existing Liberal Coalition party remain in government. Highs seen last week were the highest since April and came as the NZD outpaced the AUD on the back of the Australian political uncertainty and meek response by the RBNZ to the current housing crisis. The NZD move up in recent hours comes on the back of the lack of urgency displayed by the RBNZ in a speech to the market yesterday on implementing further macro-prudential measures to tackle the NZ housing crisis. Declines were seen to the support rallies to resistance level earlier in the week as the market began to anticipate a clear outcome on the Australian election, although budget related credit rating uncertainty remains high. The ballot introduced further uncertainty into the Australian political landscape as the result will likely see minor parties holding the balance of power once all the votes are counted. Look to events this afternoon headed by the RBA cash rate decision to induce additional volatility. As with all the currencies covered, the data wrap in Australia this week has played second fiddle to the sentiment on global markets. Betting odds favour a Liberal-National Coalition win, although the election result is unlikely to have an impact on monetary policy. Impact on this currency pair The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 28th June pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has remained within a range against the Australian dollar since our last report. This comes as the decision by the UK to leave the EU has affected both the NZD and AUD in similar ways in response to moves away from those currencies perceived as more risky. Expect a similar week this week with ranges that respond to flow against the USD given the lack of incoming key data from either country. We favour buying AUD over NZD overall, although a sustained break of under should open further NZ dollar upside. Economic events of interest from either country which have been lacking over the week have meant the immediate supportresistance and resistancesupport levels have remained in place. We favour taking advantage of the premium in liquidity that should take place later today over the Brexit announcement to place orders at extremes and continue to favour buying the AUD over the NZD overall The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 21st June pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is little changed against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. Rallies continue to find NZD selling interest around buying dips to at present and this level continued to cap NZD demand after the firm NZ GDP data last week. Events of interest for the cross this week include the RBA minutes and a speech from RBA Assistant Governor Debelle, both are due today. The rally on the back of this data has so far capped once again ahead of resistance around the support level. Data is limited from both countries next week so it will be down to liquidity and external drivers to move the cross over the week ahead. We continue to favour the AUD over the NZD at current levels although acknowledge the solid recent NZ data and current upwards momentum in the cross The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 14th June pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian since our report on Friday. The move was largely Exchange inspired although was compounded by easing commodity prices towards the end of the week. NZ GDP and the Australian employment report are the key events to watch this week. The gains compounded after the RBNZ left rates on hold yesterday and noted the pressure that further stimulus would put on the housing market. The extent of the move is surprising and current levels would appear to offer great value for AUD buyers. Events to watch next week include NZ GDP and Australian employment The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 7th June pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has eased against the Australian dollar since our last report although not before reaching highs around in the interim. Australian trade and retail numbers this afternoon are the immediate events of interest for this cross. We strongly favour buying AUD at these levels and suspect that the current strength is more than likely flow related rather than a forbearer of further strong gains. Attempts to push beyond resistance just above below have so far failed on this NZD upswing. Australian events look set to dominate proceedings and start with building forex and private sector credit data this afternoon. The pair eventually trade all the way down to abovebefore staging a recovery overnight. That recovery has been capped by the area and as long as that remains the case, further NZD downside if favoured. NZ forex confidence and another dairy auction will draw focus next week, while from Australia we have building approvals, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 24th May pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has continued to firm against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. Further gains have been seen on the back of a shift in a call on the June RBNZ rate move by a local for now no change and from pressure on iron ore prices which have fallen to 10 week lows yesterday. Data releases out of either country look very unlikely to drive the next move this week so again look to commodity sentiment to have a strong influence. The extremes seen this week will set first minor support and resistance levels into next week where neither country has data releases that look likely to usher in the next move. We favour buying AUD over NZD at these levels The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 17th May pm NZT The New Zealand dollar remains on a firm footing against the Australian dollar in current trade. The RBNZ survey on inflation expectations and RBA minutes should provide a little interest today, although it will be the Australian employment data on Thursday which is most important for this cross. Also look for potential interim resistance near support. Support ahead of resistance held the retracement prior to the latest rally, which started after the release of the NZ Financial Stability report. Increasing expectations of further RBA rate cuts continues to bolster demand for the NZD comparatively and raises the chance of next resistance at support being challenged in time. With a light NZ data calendar next week look for the prevailing commodity sentiment and the Australian employment data to drive the cross The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 10th May pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has continued to advance against the Australian dollar since our last commentary, although sits off its highs in current trade. Highs were seen just above lows late last week and came amidst an environment of weak demand for the AUD after the RBA rate cut on Tuesday and later bearish RBA statement on monetary policy Friday. Weakening commodity prices sharp falls have been seen in oil, steel, gold, and iron ore overnight have continued to apply pressure to the currencies of large hard commodity exporters like Australia. The move occurred on Tuesday after the RBA opted to cut rates for the first time in a year. The NZD rally has so far failed to breach resistance at support in what has been relatively subdued trade after the decision. Next week is a relatively quiet one for the pair which should again see commodity influences come to the fore. Expect events of the next 24 hours to have a large impact on the pair this week, starting with the RBA cash rate announcement this afternoon. NZ employment data due tomorrow will add to what is likely to be a choppy week of trade for this cross. Resistance beyond support should be seen near support although is minor in nature. Look for another busy week in the cross next week starting with the RBA rate decision on Tuesday The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 26th April pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is lifting in current trade against the Australian dollar. Whilst still soft overall, the lift from the lows has been helped by weakness in oil and iron ore prices overnight. These key commodities for Australia helped the AUD gain against the NZD over the course of last week. Look for fresh direction for the cross to come from the key Australian inflation data tomorrow and NZ OCR decision on Thursday. Current levels are approximately mid range of the last 6 weeks and come after the NZ dollar fell ahead of resistance in the middle of the week This cam on the back of stronger demand for the AUD as it enjoyed the benefit of a strong oil price and continued rally in iron ore. Domestic events which have been lacking of late will feature next week and include the Australian Q1 inflation numbers on Wednesday and RBNZ OCR decision on Thursday. Flow in the pair helped drive the NZD to lows around highs last week, although the story has been very different this week after the NZD opened sharply higher yesterday on the back of the Doha oil meeting impasse. A strong rebound in the oil price has helped moderate the gains in recent hours however. Minor support at resistance has now been broken which should mean that the older more critical support level at resistance will now open up. NZ inflation data on Monday complicates though The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 12th April pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has drifted slightly higher against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The dour trade in this cross comes on the back of data calendars out of both countries which have been very quiet. Australian employment numbers on Thursday should hopefully provide some excitement and will be followed by inflation data out of NZ on Monday next week. For now the cross appears to be in a slow grind for the NZD higher. Having said that, a NZD fall was seens this week after the NZIER business confidence survey and post the RBA cash rate decision whose statement failed to point explicitly at the recent AUD strength. A lift has been seen overnight as the AUD has underperformed in the face of fierce JPY demand. First support is seen at resistanceresistance is close by at support. Rate for external factors to again dictate next week until the Australian employment data release on Thursday The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 5th April pm NZT The New Zealand dollar eased against the Australian dollar this morning after the release of a weak latest NZIER business confidence survey. It will be a busy day for the cross today with the RBA cash rate announcement due this afternoon. Fallout from this meeting should play a pivotal role in determining the direction of this pair for the remainder of this week. To that extent with expectations near universal for no move the change will most likely come down to what comments are made or lack of over the recent run up in the AUD and whether the move may influence the rhetoric in wording of the policy announcement. Next week should again be busy for the cross with various Australian data due on Monday followed by the RBA cash rate decision on Tuesday no change expected. First minor support should be seen around resistance. Highs around lows have been noted since that report, whilst support above resistance has held any moves of NZ dollar underperformance. Quiet data calendars from both countries this week has us favouring more of the same over the days ahead. Liquidity inspired NZD gains in the cross last week failed at the highs seen a week earlier aroundlows Lows traded last weekhighs managed to only briefly pierce the RBNZ rate cut NZD low points. It is a very quiet week for both countries this week on the economic front. This has us favouring more consolidation with recent ranges. Pricing was initially weak at the start of this week on the back of weaker commodities pricing. Better than expected NZ GDP data and another shift higher in the commodity currencies has added further fuel to the rally since. Offshore events will hold the key next week to whether this move can extend through the key resistance in the area which has capped the two major rallies from October last year The current interbank midrate is NZDUSD The interbank range this week has been NZDUSD Tuesday 15th March pm NZT Pressure on the New Zealand dollar against the Australian dollar has resumed again this week. The surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates on Thursday last week has seen the local unit come under heavy selling pressure since, although the trend was well in place prior to the news. Thursday will be another key day for this cross with NZ Q4 GDP and Australian employment numbers slated for release. Watch the latest dairy price auction overnight tonight also. The already weak trend accelerated sharply yesterday after the surprise decision by the RBNZ to cut interest rates. Whilst many have been predicting cuts infew had predicted a move as early as March. We strongly favour selling NZD rallies from here after the policy move, a view which is made firmer by the recent broad based rally in the key Australian commodities. Next week will be another busy one in this cross given the key data releases in both countries. We look for resistance at support to capnow any NZD bounce The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Friday 4th March pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has continued to fall sharply against the Australian dollar over the course of the week. This continued the trend that began on Friday after the better than expected U. A stronger than expected Australian Q4 GDP print on Wednesday provided the impetus for the cross to break support at resistance. This level should now form the first resistance to any NZD bounce whilst support just above and around resistance forms the immediate barrier to further declines. Of immediate interest for the cross is the Australian retail sales report at pm today The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 1st March pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has fallen sharply against the Australian dollar since our report on Friday. The declines have come on the back of the sharp falls seen on Friday post the better than expected U. A downgraded assessment by a leading bank for the fortunes of the NZ economy has also weighed. Support at resistance has again held the decline so far, fresh resistance which formed last week around support now lies distant. Support around the resistance again held during the week. Weaker than expected Australian Capex intention numbers released yesterday have helped cement the NZ dollar gains from those lows, the rally has so far failed to break the first resistance in the zone support. Australian data looks set to be the key driver for the cross next week. Releases include Q4 GDP and January retail sales. Resistance beyond the recent highs is pegged around The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 23th February pm NZT The New Zealand dollar is drifting in trade so far against the Australian dollar this week. A relatively empty data schedule this week has us favouring mainly lateral trading with a marginal NZD downside bias this week as resistance in the support area caps. Australian employment data on Thursday will be important for this cross. The tone of trade this week has been set by overall USD weakness and flows out of the USD rather than any local issues. We favour selling this cross especially after the recent strong rally, key resistance to target selling lies in the zone support The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 9th February pm NZT The New Zealand dollar continues to trade on a firm footing against the Australian dollar in trade this week. Softer than expected Australian retail sales data on Friday failed to make much impact and for now the NZ dollar momentum higher appears to have abated. Data this week is unlikely to make much impact, although a speech by the RBA Governor on Friday should be noted. The sharp gains come on the back of a jump in the latest NZ Q4 employment data which saw 16k fewer people unemployed in the December quarter from the quarter prior. The momentum was also aided by comments from the RBNZ Governor which appeared to note a preoccupation by the market with the current weak headline inflation levels. Australian retail sales and the RBA statement on monetary policy this afternoon provide the next lead cross. Next week should see a reduction in volatility in light of the relatively low impact data calendar scheduled for release. The rally this week would appear to offer attractive levels for NZ dollar sellers, in the near term at least. First resistance is pegged around support The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 2nd February pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has staged a rally against the Australian dollar in recent hours ahead of the very important next 36 hour period for this cross. This period includes the release of the next GDT dairy price auction, NZ Q4 employment data, and firstly the RBA cash rate meeting this afternoon. Pricing for the NZD took a hit last week after the more dovish than expected RBNZ monetary policy meeting commentary and marginally better than expected Australian inflation data. Friday will also be important for this cross with both Australian retail sales and the RBA statement on monetary policy due for release. Domestic releases from either currency have had only minimal impact so far, although we do have data this week that could influence. On the NZD side of the equation we have a dairy auction tonight and inflation data tomorrow, while from Australia we get consumer sentiment on Wednesday and inflation expectations on Thursday. The next NZD support AUD resistance levels are now pegged around andwith the level now becoming first NZD resistance. The NZD peaked last week amid the heavy commodity selling which was seen on the back of the increased Chinese economic concerns and crashing Chinese equity markets. AUD sensitivity to key commodity price weakness has been the primary driver of AUD underperformance in recent weeks. It should again be a key driver over the holiday break, given the light data calendars in both countries. There is little on the data calendar to change proceedings in the lead up to Xmas, so commodity moves and liquidity issues will dictate. First key support for this cross lies near resistancewhilst first NZD resistance lies near the recent highs at low Pressure on this pair looks to remain to the NZ dollar upside, especially while commodity pricing remains weak. Gains capped out around the low level after the strong rally seen by the NZD post the RBNZ meeting. A bumper Australian jobs report released later in the day has knocked the NZD off its highs however. Initial support is seen around the resistance level The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 8th December pm NZT The New Zealand dollar continued higher last week trading to highs near on Friday. Firm Australian data last week including Q3 GDP, which surpassed expectations, have been overlooked in recent days as the AUD has fallen victim to harsher commodity price inspired selling. NZD highs AUD lows around seen during the week, form immediate resistance. Initial NZD support is eyed around the weekly lows at the AUD resistance level. Australian retail sales data this afternoon will form the immediate test for this cross. We see little to set a charge much beyond these extremities though until next Thursday when the RBNZ cash rate decision and Australian November employment data will be released The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 1st December pm NZT The New Zealand dollar trades around the level against its Australian counterpart today ahead of a heavy schedule of data which has the potential to move this cross considerably throughout the week. Australian Q3 GDP data tomorrow and the earlier GDT dairy price auction also will have a high chance of inducing further volatility. Initial declines to around rallies to reversed after the data showed a 9. Australian private capital expenditure data on Thursday will have some degree of influence though. We cautiously favour continuing to sell NZD rallies in this cross, although we note the weak recent run. Another sizeable decline in dairy prices, although not completely unexpected, weighed heavily on the NZD and help the pair sustain a break below support around above This has opened the way for a test toward over the coming week. So far the market has traded to a low of high and the near term risks remain skewed to NZD underperformance. It currently trades just off its lowshighs but well down from highs near lows near seen prior to the employment data. The next target for this move is aroundselling should now reside around the level. Key events to watch include the GDT dairy auction and NZ retail sales releases, the RBA minutes on Tuesday will also be of interest. We favour lower levels The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 10th November pm NZT The New Zealand dollar fell sharply last week against the Australian dollar. NZD highs near were quickly left behind after a combination of factors pushed the pair to NZD lows around highs later in the week. Adding to this was worse than expected decline in the latest GDT dairy auction prices Wednesday morning was promptly followed by a miss in the NZ Q3 employment data k, vs k exp. Australian employment data due for release on Thursday and the RBA minutes this afternoon will set direction for this cross over the next week. For now the bias is for further NZD downside with rallies likely to invite selling near dips to The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 3rd November pm NZT Data-flow over the next 24 hours and the RBA meeting today hold the key to the NZDAUD this week. The New Zealand dollar continues to see supply on gains against the Australian above The cross has the potential for a decent downward NZD correction should the RBA remain on hold today, data flow which favours Australia over NZ would add to the impetus. Initial demand should be seen around The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 27th October pm NZT The New Zealand dollar outperformed its Australian cousin for much of last week trading up to a high of low on Friday afternoon. Increasing expectation for a RBA interest rate cut, to counter the out of cycle rate hikes by the major retail banks, certainly weighed on the Australian dollar. But, the currency did perform better than the NZD in the wake of the Chinese surprise rate cut announcement. This caused the cross to pull back to rally to where it eventually ran out of steam. We have two key releases this week that could both influence the cross. Tomorrow sees Australian inflation data hit the wires, then on Thursday morning the RBNZ release their rate statement. The key NZD downside level to watch comes in around resistance A breakthrough there may well open the way for a much broader correction for the NZD lower. The overnight move of the NZD higher has been aided by illiquidity in the NZD. In contrast pricing for a series of further rate cuts by the RBNZ took a hit last week as Governor Wheeler expressed concerns over the impact such a move might have on inflation and the housing market. He also noted the need for room to move rates lower should the global economy deteriorate significantly. The AUD is also benefitting from firming commodity prices gold, iron ore, oil and heightened risk appetite but the short kiwi covering in the current environment may see this cross move towards more key resistance around support. Further resistance is pegged around support. Australian employment next Thursday will be pivotal for fresh direction in this cross The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 6th October pm NZT It has been an interesting week for this pair with the key resistance area support broken last night. The New Zealand dollar has simply out performed its Australian cousin over recent days no doubt helped by positive expectations for another solid dairy action tonight. The break above below is a positive signal as that level had capped the market for the past 3 months or so. Australian retail sales data this afternoon could easily impact and a soft result here may see a move towardbut that level has contained the pair since mid-June and it will continue to provide a tough barrier. While from Australia the focus will be on Tuesday afternoons RBA rate statement The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 29th Sept pm NZT This pair continues to be defined by a broad trading range that has dominated for more than three months now. From NZ this week we just have building consents and business confidence numbers to digest. While from Australia we also get building approvals along with retails sales data. Australian dollar weakness has played a part in move, with economic sentiment very negative toward Australia at the moment. The pair broke above minor resistance around support last night, and it may well continue toward over the coming days. The New Zealand dollar has largely been languishing around in the lower reaches of the recent range and the downside continues to feel vulnerable. The next key support level comes in around resistance and any break below there would be a NZD negative signal positive AUD. There is little in the way of key data set for release from either country this week and as such the cross will continue to be driven by action in the wider market. The next tomorrow level comes in around If that were to contain the NZD weakness, a recovery could develop. However, a sustained break through would suggest another broader NZD down leg is developing. The pair has spent the better part of three months ranging sideways and the odds are increasing that we could see a breakout towards a weaker NZD. Next week from New Zealand we have consumer sentiment, visitor arrivals and the trade balance to digest. The cross traded down to targeted support around the resistance last night and is currently not far from that level. If we were to see a sustained break throughit would open the way for a test of I would expect that level to contain this period of NZ dollar underperformance. Broadly speaking, there is no indication that the pair is going to break out of the range that has dominated for much of the past three months. As such, those looking to sell AUD and buy NZD should take advantage of current levels, or any further dips to rally through toand take some risk off the table. Part of the move has been driven by NZD weakness, but the latest leg lower has all been about Australian dollar strength. The duel drives of NZD weakness and AUD strength have seen the cross trade to a low of high of in the past 12 hours. There is support around resistanceand if that goes then again at I would expect a solid test of the level in the not too distant future. I would also expect one of those two support levels to contain this period of NZD weakness. Key resistance on the topside around support has contained any periods of NZD strength since the pair broke through that level in early June. On the downside there is minor support around upside resistancebut more importantly we have and then containing any NZD weakness. At this stage there seem little market motivation to severely test those boundaries. We do have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to digest on Thursday morning and this should create some volatility. We may well see another test toward key resistance around support in the very near term, but I still expect that level to provide a very tough NZD topside barrier. With the prospect of a RBNZ interest rate cut next week there seems little reason for the pair break through there in the coming days. As such, a further period of ranging between support at resistance and resistance at support looks likely. That RBNZ interest rate meeting will provide the main focus next week, although from Australia tomorrow also get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment data to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 1st Sept pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has lost ground to its Australian cousin this past week, driven lower by disappointing business confidence data. The pair broke below minor support around resistance late last week and accelerated down to last night. There is support around resistance and then again at I suspect will contain the NZD downside for now, although we do have some key releases out in the very near term that could influence. Indications are that we could see another positive outcome for dairy prices and this should support the NZD to a degree. Taking a look at the bigger picture I expect a continuation of the broad consolidation and range trading between and that we have seen since mid-June. Aside from a few crazy minutes on Monday night, when the market literally failed to operate in anything close to an orderly manner, this pair has spent the past week ranging between support at and resistance at I continue to believe the lower NZ dollar bound of that range is the more vulnerable and therefore favour selling NZ dollars into any periods of strength toward weakness to Next week from Australia we have building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales and the trade balance all set for release. While from NZ we have business confidence, building consents and other dairy auction to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 25th Aug pm NZT The New Zealand dollar made gains against its Australian cousin last week trading right up to key resistance around support We have seen a sharp rejection from that level however, thanks to volatility in the wider marker. Weakness in global stock markets caused some wild moves last night as liquidity completely dried up for a short time. Markets quickly composed themselves and in the end the NZDAUD was trading around the mark AUDNZDbut it just goes to show how fragile the situation is at the moment. I would look for the market to drift down back under over in the coming days, but in this environment any prediction is even less certain than normal. We have a speech from RBA Governor Stevens to digest this week along with private capital expenditure data. The repeated failures at suggest the risks are swinging back to NZ dollar underperformance for now. If we were rate see a sustained break through this would open the way for a much broader correction potentially targeting the key area. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations and the trade balance to digest. While from Australia private capital expenditure data will be the main focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 18th Aug pm NZT The past week has seen this pair trade nicely between the two initial support and resistance levels of and and In the first half of last week the cross tested the NZD top of that range, driven largely by volatility in the wake of the Chinese Yuan devaluation. As the week wore on the New Zealand dollar underperformed, most notably on Friday after disappoint NZ retails sales data was released. This helped to dive the pair down to support at resistance atwhich contained the New Zealand dollar weakness. Expect the pair to continue more of this broad range trading over the coming week. Initial support is seen around resistance with stronger support around On the NZD topside we have resistance around support protecting the much stronger level of Next week from NZ we have another dairy auction, producer prices and inflation expectations data. I continue to see limiting the NZ dollar downside for now. There was little in the way of follow through selling in the NZD late last week and this is an indication that much negativity is already priced into the NZD. With only retail sales data set for release from NZ on Friday, the market is going to struggle to find fresh reasons to sell the NZD over the next few days. The movement was quite violent at times before NZD support around resistance finally stemmed the move. From there we have seen a grind back in demand from the NZ dollar, to far more neutral levels above below Overall the pair remains in its recent wider trading band, albeit the NZD support at resistance remains the most vulnerable side of the range in the short term. A sustained break below above would open the way for a further NZ dollar losses potentially toward Longer term however, we may be in for further consolidation between and and There is plenty of data this week that could influence starting with Australian retail sales and the RBA rate statement this afternoon. Over the coming week I would now expect to see further ranging between and The risks to that outlook are probably skewed to the NZ dollar downside and a break back through From Australia next week we have retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, the trade balance and employment data all set for release. While from NZ we also get employment data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 28th July pm NZT Although the current environment is broadly negative for both currencies, the New Zealand dollar has managed to outperform the Australian dollar this past week. The AUD is suffering more than the NZD on the back of poor Chinese data, declining Chinese stocks, and the negative outlook for commodities. A very short sold NZD market is also playing a part with position squaring in the NZD providing a level of support for the currency. There is potential for this to continue when RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaks tomorrow. RBA Governor Stevens is also set to speak this week and as such there is plenty of potential for volatility. The balance of risks at the moment suggest a test of key resistance around support is on the cards. With record levels of speculative short sold positions in the NZD the market really needed a good reason to encourage further NZD selling. As a result the NZD squeezed higher and in the wake of the announcement and that squeeze continued on into the London session. The pair traded as high as low before finally running out of steam. A slow drift lower now back toward upto is the most likely scenario in the near term. Looking further out we may be in for more consolidation between the broad parameters of and Next week from NZ we only have building consents and business confidence set for release. While from Australia we have building approvals, import prices and producer prices data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 21th July pm NZT After declining to late last week, we have seen the NZD recover some ground in recent days. The gains in New Zealand dollar performance were helped in large part by comments from PM John Key Yesterday. Another big fall in dairy prices weighed heavily on the NZD and further downside came in the wake of yesterdays softer than forecast inflation data. Once the pair broke back below minor support around resistance aroundit fell sharply trading to a low of high of last night. The low high from earlier in July is now in sight and may well prove something of a magnet. The Reserve Bank of NZ RBNZ meet next week and with an interest tomorrow cut almost certain, the NZD should continue to trade heavily. From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes along with inflation and a speech from Governor Stevens to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 14th July pm NZT After squeezing higher in the first half of last week, as risk off sentiment swept the market, this pair has largely been side-lined and a tight range has developed. The New Zealand dollar seems comfortable for the time being trading around to its Australian cousin. Minor support around resistance around has contained the NZD downside over recent days and this keeps open the prospect of a test toward key resistance around support around Any rate back below above would quickly turn the focus back to the NZD downside. The key to near term direction however may well lie in a couple of releases from NZ this week. First up we have another dairy auction to digest then on Thursday morning we get the Q2 inflation figure. Australian data could also influence, starting with business confidence this afternoon. Wednesday night in particular saw a sharp move to the topside as the AUD came under pressure and the NZD squeezed higher across the board. The pressure on the Australian dollar came as Chinese stocks continued to collapse, commodities remained weak, and Greek uncertainty increased. At any other time those same factors could easily have weighed on the New Zealand dollar as well, but with record levels of short sold positions in the NZD, market positioning took over. Short sold positions rushed to buy them back and it became self-fulfilling driving the NZD higher. The market is still short NZD and further gains could be on the cards. The next key level resistance level is around and that will remain the target as long as the market holds above below From Australia next week we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data. While from NZ we have another dairy action to digest along with inflation data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 7th July pm NZT The past week has seen a sharp recovery in this pair after trading to a low of high last Thursday. The AUD has suffered as economic data disappointed and iron ore prices saw renewed weakness. This helped drive the pair back up through the key level and back over under The next topside resistance level comes in around support and I would expect that to cap any further gains over the coming week. The RBA release their rate statement later this afternoon which provides the immediate focus. The next support level is around resistance and the NZ dollar may well look to consolidate recent losses by ranging between those two levels for a time. Next week from NZ to draw focus we have NZIER business confidence along with the business NZ manufacturing index. While from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change numbers to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 30th June pm NZT With no key data released from either country recently, this pair has been driven by volatility in the wider market. With that in mind we are likely to see further ranging between and over the coming days. The New Zealand dollar repeatedly tested key support around resistance around over the past seven days, but its failure to break through eventually saw the start of a NZ dollar correction higher. There are indications that the market is very short sold New Zealand dollars, and this increases the risk of the correction extending higher. I expect a test of initial resistance around support around over the coming week. If caps the NZD topside, the market could turn back down. In the past 24 hours this pair has once again tested levels toward key support around resistance There was a real lack of momentum in the move however, and as such the level was never seriously threatened. We have now seen two failed attempts toward that level in the past week and this may encourage some buying which could easily see a broader correction toward develop. I do favour something of a corrective NZD exchange unfolding over the coming week. The market was disappointed with the 0. Against the AUD the NZD is now not far off and a test of key support at resistance at may well develop over the coming days. I would expect that level to hold on the initial attempt at least. However, it will come under increasing pressure if NZ data continues to disappoint. Next week from NZ we have consumer sentiment, credit card spending and trade balance data. After collapsing toward in the immediate aftermath of that cut, the cross has failed to see any meaningful NZD bounce and has actually continued to grind out fresh NZD lows just below above If we do happen to see a period of relative NZD strength the pair will run into strong resistance around the rate support which I suspect will cap it. The medium term target is now a test of support around resistance We do have the RBA minutes out in the next hour to draw focus and these could provide some volatility. The RBNZ caught many by surprise with the move and the reaction on the currency was brutal. Against the Australian dollar the pair literally fell from to in a few seconds as there were no NZD buyers in sight. We then saw further NZD losses to a few hours later after Australian employment data surprised on the strong side. After such a sharp move there is always potential for a corrective bounce, but if we do see some strength I can only imagine NZ dollar sellers will be lined up ahead of the key level. Expect that level to cap the market over the coming weeks with downside support now coming in at resistance. We may well see the market now spend some time, potentially even months, ranging between those two levels i. Since then we have seen a gradual recovery, helped by disappointing retail sales and trade balance data out of Australia. We may well be in for an extended period of ranging as the pair seems comfortable bouncing between support resistance and resistance support on the NZD upside. This week could well prove to be very volatile however with the RBNZ monetary policy statement and a number Australian data points set for release. Whether or not the RBNZ cut interest rates is a close call and as such the NZD will react either way. From Australia we get business confidence data today, followed by consumer sentiment and employment change figures later in the week. RBA Governor Stevens is also set to speak tomorrow afternoon. These factors help drive the cross back down to key support around resistance around That level has once again held on exchange downside and a recovery toward developed. Poor Australian data out yesterday in the form of retails sales and the trade balance helped to underpin the recovery and the market will now look toward a number of key releases out next week for direction. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change all set for release. While from NZ we get the RBNZ interest rate meeting and monetary policy statement set for release for Thursday. A number of forecasters are calling for a rate cut from the RBNZ, although there is certainly no consensus on the matter. We have the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate meeting to digest this afternoon and that may well add some volatility. The broader trend is towards NZD underperformance and this would suggest the risks are skewed toward another test below above at some stage. This would, I believe provide a NZD selling opportunity. Later in the week from Australia we get GDP, retail sales, and trade balance data to digest. My target for this recovery was the area and yesterday that was finally achieved. The cross has actually seen some volatile price action in the past 24 hours, with a brief flurry to in the immediate aftermath of poor Australian capital expenditure data. But this was short lived and weakness in the NZD overnight quickly drove prices back down to Near term direction is now a lot less certain. We could see some further investigations above for, although I believe these will not be sustained and therefore provide a good selling opportunity. Key support on the downside now comes in around resistance and any break below there will likely signal the start of a move back toward From NZ next week we only have the overseas trade index and another Fonterra dairy auction of any note. While from Australia we have building approvals, GDP, trade balance data, and an RBA rate meeting to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 26th May pm NZT After a prolonged period of sideways trading aroundthe New Zealand dollar managed to break out of its increasingly tight range against the Australian dollar with a move to the topside on Friday afternoon. So far the pair has made it toward minor resistance at support atbut quiet trading conditions in the early stages of this week has seen that level cap. There is still potential for a move toward the stronger resistance level of support level ofas long as the market can hold above support now seen at below resistance at Any move down through up through would be a weak signal and negate the current bullish outlook. Still to come this week from Australia we have private capital expenditure and construction work done data, along with a speech from RBA deputy governor Lowe. The broader trend is to the downside having fallen sharply from levels near parity one month ago. While from Australia we get data on construction work done along with private capital expenditure The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 19th May pm NZT After the big declines of the past month, this pair seems to be taking a breather as trade consolidates between the levels of and and Key downside support comes in around topside resistance and while above that level a broader correction toward or potentially or could still unfold. Over the coming hours we have the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes to digest along with NZ inflation expectations. Both these releases could easily add volatility to the market. Later in the week from Australia we also get inflation expectations data along with consumer sentiment numbers. The pair briefly touched a low of before staging a quick recovery in the wake of that report. There is a key support level around and the quick bounce from close to there on Wednesday has only served to reinforce it. So far that bounce has been capped aroundbut I suspect a broader recovery toward could develop over the coming week. From NZ next week we have inflation expectations data along with another dairy auction from Fonterra and the annual budget release. In Australia attention will turn to the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, along with consumer sentiment and inflation expectations data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 12th For pm NZT It has been largely one-way traffic for this pair over the past week as the intense selling pressure remains. The next level of support come in around resistance around and the pair may try to stage something of a corrective NZD bounce from there. On the topside now provides the initial resistance downside support at level. Those looking to purchase New Zealand dollars should take advantage of any periods of weakness that see the pair below above Initial topside resistance comes in around support around and that will be the target for any potential corrective bounce. Next week from NZ we have the RBNZ financial stability report, a speech from Governor Wheeler, the Business NZ manufacturing index and retails sales data. While from Australia we get NAB business confidence, the annual budget release, home loans and the wage price index The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 5th May pm NZT This pair continued is pullback from recent highs last week helped along by a somewhat dovish stance from the RBNZ. There has been a growing expectation that we will see a rate cut and if that is the case the Australian dollar will see some pressure. This could easily drive the pair back up to If the RBA surprise the market and keep interest rates steady we will see a sharp fall in this pair with support around resistance likely giving way to further NZD losses. This combination of factors saw the NZD continue its sharp correction lower and the pair a test of support around resistance was seen yesterday in the wake of the RBNZ rate statement. Early yesterday evening we saw the pair put in a vicious bounce from support around fall from driven by a wave of AUD selling. The trigger for this bout of AUD weakness was an article in the Sydney Morning Herald by a respected reporter that said the RBA will cut rates when they meet next week. That RBA meeting will be the main focus for the week and with some real doubt in the market about the outcome, we should get a good reaction either way should continue to provide good NZD support, while the pair will run into resistance around support and then again at The fundamental shift in stance from the RBNZ over the past 10 days has pretty much taken the chance of parity for the pair off the table. Those who are still looking to purchase Australian dollars with NZD should target levels just below above or potentially At this stage I would be very surprised to see a return to levels over for this pair The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 28th Apr pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has lost significant ground to the Australian dollar over the past week. Softer than expected NZ inflation contrasted with a stronger than forecast Australian inflation result and this started the correction lower in the pair. The pullback has now taken this pair all the way back to support around resistance For the time being that level has contained the down side and we now await the RBNZ statement due out at 9am Thursday. Ahead of that release we have the trade balance and business confidence data set to hit the wires tomorrow. The pair did have another solid attempt reaching over recent days, but as has happened on previous attempts, something comes along to trigger a pullback. These triggered a pullback below above before the RBNZ deputy governor ramped up the downside pressure. Not only did he say the bank was not considering any interest rate increases, but he spent a fair amount of time talking about the potential for a rate cut. This completely undermined support for the NZD and drove the cross back below above The repeated failures above below will now make it even harder for the pair to mount a fresh attack. Those who have been waiting for parity to sell NZ dollars will have to start reconsidering their level or risk missing the boat. It now seems likely that the forex trigger for any potential move to parity will rest in the hands of the RBA. This has driven the pair back up over below and after such a strong recovery a test toward parity may well now be on the cards. The RBA minutes released this afternoon offered little in the way of fresh insight into thinking at the central bank and as such the market reaction was muted. We have Australian inflation data set for release tomorrow and the market is looking for a result of 0. That much better than forecast result saw a big increase in demand for Australian dollars and this quickly drove the cross back down toward, and briefly below, I expect the pair to continue to run into good selling interest on any periods of strength toward, or potentially over, For the moment the pair remains above initial support around below resistance atbut any sustained break below that level would warn a much bigger pullback is unfolding. Current levels continue to provide good value for those looking to buy Australian dollars, and although another test toward parity may well eventuate over the coming weeks, it is by no means definite. That advice certainly rang true over the past week, when after trading up to down to in thin Easter holiday market conditions, the NZD suddenly saw a very sharp pullback. Two key Australian releases helped to drive the pair back down to up to on Tuesday. Both releases caused an increase in demand for Australian dollar and this weighed on the NZD. Next week from Australia we get the latest readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and unemployment change. While from NZ we have business confidence, another Fonterra dairy auction and the Business NZ manufacturing index The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Thursday 2nd April pm NZT The Australian dollar has been under pressure from much of the past week, thanks to soft iron ore prices and expectations for another interest rate cut from the RBA when they meet on Tuesday. This helped drive the NZDAUD cross up to fresh highs at AUDNZD lows atbefore a pullback below above ensued. Look for spikes toward or over or underto run into good selling interest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 31st Mar pm NZT The Australian dollar has been the big under-performer over the past week, losing ground on most crosses. While from Australia we have private sector credit, building approvals, and the trade balance set for release. With increasing expectations of another rate cut from the RBA over the coming months, this pair is likely to remain elevated for some time yet. During this period of heightened volatility the NZD outperformed its Australian cousin and nowhere was this more evident that yesterday. As the NZDUSD broke above the key level a wave of stop-loss buy orders were triggered which catapulted the NZD higher. A move to parity, although not far away points wise, still seems a long shot at best. Overall this week, and taking into account both economic releases and the price action, there has been nothing to suggest the pair will break out of the now increasingly familiar to to trading range. The Australian dollar is seeing some pressure in the lead up to the RBA minutes set for release this afternoon. The market is expecting this to confirm the central bank remains on course to cut interest rates again over the coming months. If this is indeed the case the NZD should continue to grind higher and the pair to test levels around again. The RBNZ failed to provide any fresh reason to sell the NZD and as such a wave of profit taking developed. This saw the cross to the Australian dollar recover all the way to overnight. With the RBNZ firmly on hold, and the RBA still likely to cut interest rates again in the coming months, support around resistance should continue to contain any periods of NZD weakness. I suspect the pair will get back up to test resistance around support over the coming week The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 10th Mar pm NZT The New Zealand dollar dramatically underperformed its Australian cousin last week, thanks in large part to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Their announcement that they are looking to create a new asset class for property investors undermined support for the NZD, which was trading at the time near post flight highs to the AUD. The downside pressure paused around for a time, but eventually re-emerged and late on Friday evening the pair traded as low as high as Although support around resistance around has so far contained the NZD downside, we have a major hurdle to overcome on Thursday morning in the form of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. It seems unlikely they will miss the opportunity to try and talk the currency down, and further details on potential macro-prudential tools to limit property investing could also weigh. The risks for the NZS are therefore skewed to the downside, and a serious test of support around resistance around Thursday could also prove important for the Australian dollar side of the equation with their employment change data set for release. The RBNZ is looking to create a new asset class for property investing which could then see macro prudential policies implemented to cool investment lending. Expect the broad parameters of to to to contain the pair over the coming week. This current bout of NZD weakness could easily see the pair test the lower boundary of that range, but there is likely to be good support toward that level resistance toward Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ rate meeting on Thursday to draw focus. This will be followed by the Business NZ manufacturing index on Friday. From Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 3rd Mar pm NZT The New Zealand dollar has recovered sharply from its dip to Australian dollars mid last week. That move was driven by declining NZ inflation expectations, but since then we have seen better trade balance figures and another record high for NZ migration. The Australian dollar has also been weighed on by soft private capital expenditure data and the prospect of a potential rate cut from the Reserve Bank this afternoon. The market is split right down the middle in terms of cut or no cut expectations and as such there is likely to be significant volatility around the announcement. The cross now trades close to where it was this time last Friday. The Australian dollar has also seen a reversal of fortunes this week with a boost from positive construction data on Tuesday completely undone by softer than forecast private capital expenditure data yesterday. That event could well dictate near term direction for the pair with expectations finely balanced on whether they cut rates or not. Once the RBA decision is out of the way we still have Australian GDP, retail sales, and trade balance to digest. From NZ next week we just have another Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 24th Feb pm NZT The New Zealand dollar made a fresh high against its Australian cousin late last week at low at But with upside momentum indicators fading, the pair was not able to sustain those lofty levels and a quick pullback ensued. This saw the pair trade to a low of high of yesterday before recovering somewhat. We can expect more of the same price action over the coming week with the pair struggling to sustain moves toward, or over From New Zealand this week we get a speech from Governor Wheeler along with the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data. A fresh cycle high of low of traded on Monday and the pair has remained above below ever since. Further gains however, have not been forthcoming and momentum has started to fade a touch. Initial support at resistance is key, with any move below there opening the way for a bigger correction toward Next week from New Zealand we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence. While from Australia we have private capital expenditure data to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 17th Feb pm NZT The New Zealand dollar hit a fresh high against the Australian dollar last night at low of These gains come as recent data highlights the divergent economic performance of the two countries. Late last week Australia saw very weak employment numbers which have weighed on the AUD. On the other hand New Zealand released stronger than forecast retail sales numbers yesterday, which boosted demand for NZ dollars. A further cut in interest rates from the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected over the coming months, while the RBNZ are likely to remain on hold into That expectation for a widening interest rate differential has helped to drive the pair to it recent highs. However, caution is warranted about the expectation for further gains toward parity. While the interest rate differential will likely widen further it is unlikely to reach the historical extremes of basis points. This should mean the New Zealand dollar will find gains over under much harder to sustain. Still to come this week from NZ we have the latest dairy auction from Fonterra along with the producer prices index. Soft Australian employment data yesterday was a key driver for the pair and next week we have the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes to digest. From NZ we have another dairy auction from Fonterra along with the latest retail sales data. Resistance around support around has managed to cap the move for the time being, but I expect that level to come under increasing pressure. Minor support around resistance around should contain the downside in the very near term with direction this week likely to be driven by Australian releases. Today we will hear from RBA Governor Stevens with an on the record speech set for release, then later in the week we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change. Since then however, we have seen significant NZD gains and the risk remains to the topside. The cross has stalled around the level for now, but it seems likely we can expect further NZD investigations higher. A move back toward the recent high around cannot be ruled out over the coming weeks. RBA Governor Stevens is due to speak early next week and we also get readings on business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectation and employment change. It is a close call whether the central bank cuts interest rates or not and as such we could see a significant reaction in the AUD either way. Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen periods of pressure and as such the cross rate has jumped around within a point range. Overnight however, the AUD has seen heavy selling pressure and this has helped the cross recover back up over under The AUD is struggling as the market weighs the risk of cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week. That event is the main upcoming focus for the pair and it seems likely this heightened volatility is here to stay. The focus so far this year has all been on central banks and it seems next week will be no different The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 27th Jan pm NZT We have seen some good volatility in this pair with prices ranging between the broad parameters of and and over the past week. There is a slight downside bias to the pair as it continues to correct from the levels seen earlier in the year and potential still exists for a move toward Key to near term direction will be the RBNZ rate statement on Thursday morning. That is far from a certain outcome however, and central banks in general have surprised markets a number of times so far this year. Softer than forecast NZ inflation data and a growing realization that the RBNZ are likely to be on hold well into next year have been key drivers in the cross correcting from forex extremely high levels seen in the first few weeks of the year. The break below initial support around resistance around is a signal that a broader pullback could be unfolding. This move should now target support around resistance at Next week from Australia we have business confidence, inflation, and producer prices data to digest. While from New Zealand we have the RBNZ official cash rate review on Thursday. Volatility in the wider market has certainly picked up this year and this pairing is no exception. With much bigger ranges trading than in the past couple of years, working limit orders at targeted levels is good option to maximise value from any transfers The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 20th Jan pm NZT The New Zealand dollar saw a sharp appreciation against the Australian dollar throughout November and December with the NZD peaking at in early January. This move was driven by increasing expectations of divergent monetary policy. The RBNZ still suggesting rate hikes are likely in the future, while in Australia the market is pricing in a significant chance of a rate cut this year. Although some commentators are expecting a rate cut from the RBA when they meet in a couple of weeks, the more likely scenario is that any potential cut will come later in the year. Data from both countries between now and then will dictate whether the NZD makes further gains, or whether we see a pull back toward key support around resistance Looking much shorter term, there is immediate support around the resistance level and while the market holds ahead of there further NZ dollar investigations higher cannot be ruled out. However, the level has provided strong resistance so far largely containing the pair on numerous attempts over the past few days. With the extra thin market liquidity of the holiday season, it would not be surprising to see this level eventually give way and move up through the high of low of may well eventuate over the coming week. There is now little in the way of economic data set for release from Australia until next year. When dealing in markets you have to be prepared to quickly change your view in reaction to new information and as such I suspect this pair could now trade back up, and potentially over, the high of low in the coming weeks. There is some resistance around support around which has so far capped the move, but once that is overcome, a test of should unfold. Next week from NZ tomorrow have another dairy auction and GDP data to digest. While from Australia we have the RBA minutes along with the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook from the Treasury The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 9th Dec pm NZT We have recently seen further confirmation of what looks to be a medium term top put in place for this pair just below above Major trend support, that was around yesterday, finally gave way as the NZD underperformed the Australian dollar. The pair fell as low at before staging a less than convincing recovery and the focus remains on the downside over the near term. There are however, a number of key release this week that could significantly influence price action. From Australia we have consumer confidence and employment data set for release. While from NZ we are expecting Fonterra to revise their forecast payout over the coming days, and we also have the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar has made four separate attempts toward, or just over, the below level over the past week and been firmly rejected on each occasion. Both the NZD and Australian dollars have seen periods of pressure this week thanks to declining dairy prices and then poor Australian GDP, and it just seems the cross in not at all comfortable anywhere near the level. Next week from New Zealand we have the RBNZ monetary policy statement to digest on Thursday. While from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 2nd Dec pm NZT This pair broke above key resistance around support at last week as the Australian dollar suffered at the hands of declining commodity prices. Once clear of that resistance gains have continued to just shy of last night. Although the near term trend has firmly been to the NZD topside the past week, there is potential that resistance around support around could cap this move. A pull back toward rally to and then possibly would then likely eventuate. Key to this potential price action however, will be the rash of key data out over the coming days. From Australia we have building approvals and the RBA rate statement this afternoon to digest. Then later in the week retail sales and GDP are set for release. That level had contained the topside since late July and once it broke the cross shot straight up to as short sold positions stopped out. The break above below is significant and does change the near term outlook for the pair. The move could now easily extent up to the next resistance level just above Reaction at that level will be key, although I would expect it to contain price action for now and a corrective pullback to develop. While from Australia we get GDP, the RBA rate meeting, building approvals, retails sales and the trade balance The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 25th Nov pm NZT The past week has seen this pair trading in a relatively tight band between and and There is big resistance around support at that has capped the pair since late July and the market has so far failed to have a serious attempted to overcome it. Still to come this week from NZ we have the trade balance, building consents and business confidence numbers. The Australian dollar itself has seen some pressure on the back of a speech from Governor Stevens which suggested interest rates could well be on hold for years at this stage, and this has likely played a part in keeping the pair elevated. Somewhat tellingly however, the cross has failed to have a serious attempt to overcome resistance around supportWith no fundamental reason to break above there, I expect that level will continue to cap the NZ dollar topside. The risks from here are skewed to the NZD downside AUD rebound and a pull back toward the middle of the to to range that has dominated trading since late July. Next week from NZ we have inflation expectations, the trade balance, building consents and business confidence data to digest. While from Australia we get private capital expenditure data and the Treasuries mid-year fiscal outlook to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 18th Nov pm NZT The New Zealand dollar was struggling to overcome the resistance support area against the Australian dollar in the latter stages of last week. That all changed yesterday morning however, after much better than expected NZ retail sales data hit the wires. Sooner or later however, this move should run out of steam and a pullback toward is likely. I suspect will cap this move and selling NZD ahead of that level is therefore recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. From New Zealand this week we have the Fonterra dairy auction and producer prices data to digest. This has resulted in the pair gaining a cent from to to where is currently trades. Selling into that potential strength is recommended as momentum should start to wane on any further gains. Next week from NZ we have retail sales, producer prices, and the latest Fonterra dairy auction to digest. We could see some further NZ dollar gains towardbut I suspect that level will cap the NZD topside for now. A further period of ranging between and and seems likely over the coming week. New Zealand itself produced some very healthy employment data this week and that certainly helped the NZD make significant gains. Resistance on the topside comes in at support at and then again at and as previously, one of those two levels will likely cap this period of NZD strength. From Australia we get business confidence and consumer sentiment data to digest along with the wage price index, and inflation expectations The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 4th Nov pm NZT Both the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar have seen periods of pressure this week, but overall the NZD has underperformed. As such this pair has traded down toward key support around resistance around on two occasions. There is minor topside resistance around support around and while the market holds below there we can expect further tests of A move above below will likely see a broader correct toward develop. We have employment data from both countries on Thursday which could prove interesting. Early this morning however, in the wake of the Fed rate statement the NZD dramatically underperformed the AUD and the cross began to fall. The NZD downside price action continued after the RBNZ released their rate statement that has largely confirmed the markets view that the NZ central bank will now be on hold until late next year. The cross briefly traded toward key support around before an NZD bounce ensued. Further tests of the level seem likely in the near term, although the market should find it tough to break below there. Next week from NZ we have another global dairy auction from Fonterra, along with the latest employment numbers. While from Australia we have building approvals, retail sales, the trade balance and employment change all set for release along with the latest Reserve Bank of Australia RBA rate statement The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 28th Oct pm NZT Softer than expected New Zealand inflation data was the key to seeing this pair break back below above on Thursday last week. The cross eventually fell toward which managed to contain the NZ dollar weakness heading into the weekend. We have seen a small NZD bounce from there over the past 24 hours, but the risks remain skewed to the downside for now. The level will now provide resistance and I expect that level to cap any periods of near term NZ dollar strength. The main focus in terms of releases this week comes from the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday morning. The driver for that move has been weakness in the New Zealand dollar in the lead up to, and then as a result of, softer than forecast inflation data. The market is now expecting the RBNZ to remain on hold until late next year and the NZD is reacting to this change in expectation. On the other side of the Tasman Australia also released inflation data yesterday and it came in a touch stronger than forecast. The combination of these two releases has undermined recent support for the NZ dollar and I would not be surprised to see a move toward, and possibly below, above over the coming days. Next week from NZ we have business confidence, building permits and the RBNZ rate statement to digest. Inflation data from both countries is due for release this week and these will provide the main focus. With the market holding above below the risk remains of a test toward That level should cap any further gains and selling ahead of there is recommended. Next week in New Zealand the focus turns to inflation data and the trade balance. In thin market conditions early yesterday the AUD came under selling pressure and this helped to drive the pair up to down to However, there is resistance around support around that I expect to provide a tough barrier to further NZD gains, and the pair retreated from its highs without a solid test of that level. Data over the past week has only had a minimal impact on the pair, although that could change with Australian business confidence numbers due out this afternoon. These will be followed by consumer sentiment data tomorrow with inflation expectation and a speech by the RBA assistant governor later in the week. In New Zealand the focus now turns to Wednesday nights dairy action from Fonterra. Trading has been confined to a range of to to as the pair consolidates recent losses just above support seen around resistance around Australian employment data yesterday provided some volatility, but in the end the market took the release in its stride as changes to seasonal patterns have rendered individual data points unreliable. The NZD topside is protected by resistance around support around and I expect that to contain any periods of strength in the near term. Selling ahead of that level is recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. Next week is another quiet one for NZ data with just the business NZ manufacturing index and another Global Dairy Trade auction from Fonterra to digest. While from Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment and inflation expectations to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 7th Oct PM NZT The past week has seen choppy sideways trade for this pair between the parameters of and and Both currencies have seen periods of pressure and increased demand as volatility in the wider markets spills over into this pair. Key support around resistance around has not been tested and this would suggest a further period of consolidation is likely. A move as high as low as cannot be ruled out, although selling into that potential NZD strength is recommended for those looking to purchase AUD with New Zealand dollars. With little out from NZ over the rest of the week the focus turns to Australian releases. Another very poor dairy auction from Fonterra combined with much better than expected Australian building consents data should have seen the pair under pressure. But sometimes market positioning drives prices ahead of economic fundamentals and that is exactly what happened yesterday. The market is very short sold New Zealand dollars and when both currencies started squeezing higher against the USD yesterday, the NZD dramatically outperformed the AUD. Next week from Australia we have the RBA rate statement and employment change to draw focus. While from New Zealand we just have the quarterly NZIER business confidence reading to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 30th Sept PM NZT At this time last week the New Zealand dollar was trading right on resistance around support around to the Australian dollar. Since then we have seen a dramatic reversal with the currency plunging nearly three cents to a low yesterday of high of The move has been driven in large part by two releases from the RBNZ over the past week. The sharp rejection from resistance support leaves the pair looking vulnerable. While there is some support around the level resistance aroundit is likely to come under heavy pressure at some stage soon. A sustained move below above will then target ahead of ahead of From NZ this week we have the latest Fonterra dairy auction to draw focus. This saw the NZD lose over one cent of its value to the Australian dollar over the space of the following 12 hours. Although there is always potential for a corrective bounce, the risks remain skewed to further NZD weakness and a move back below above Expect to cap any potential near term strength. Next week from NZ we have building consents and business confidence data to digest. But the AUD has also seen pressure recently from a negative report by Roubini Economics and further concerns about growth in China. The area should provide a tough barrier for the pair to overcome and selling current levels is recommended for those looking to purchase Australian dollars. I expect to see the pair eventually turn back down and head sub over again over the coming weeks. We have seen a notable pick up in FX market volatility over the past couple of weeks and it seems likely this will continue in the near term. Leaving limit orders at targeted levels is a good way to try and take advantage of this increased volatility for those with the interest to transact. Next week is a quiet one for data with only the leading index and the RBA financial stability review from Australia, while from NZ we have consumer sentiment and the trade balance to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 16th Sept PM NZT Weakness in the Australian dollar has been the main driver of this pair over the past week. Record Australian employment data only provided temporary relief for the AUD as it ended last week as one of the worst performing currencies. Over the weekend the release of soft Chinese data also weight on the AUD and this has help the pair trade up to resistance around support We have now seen a significant bounce from the low high that traded 11 days ago. I expect eitheror perhaps the next level of resistance aroundto cap this period of NZD strength in the pair. The only hiccup in the NZD outperformance came yesterday in the wake of the RBNZ monetary policy statement. The NZD dramatically underperformed the AUD thanks to some strong words from the RBNZ with regards the value of the NZD. But that dip was short lived, as further AUD weakness caused the NZD to bounce sharply from the key resistance area. It seems likely the pair will test initial resistance around supportwith any move through that level targeting Selling into that potential NZD strength is recommended for those looking to buy AUD with their New Zealand dollars. Next week the focus turns to the RBA minutes along with NZ current account and GDP data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 9th Sept PM NZT The New Zealand dollar remained under pressure from the AUD for most of last week. Encouraging Australian data helped the AUD to outperform most other currencies and against the NZD this drove the cross down to up to However, we have seen something of a corrective NZD bounce in the pair in the early stages of this week. There has been no fundamental driver for the move which has largely come from a weaker Australian dollar over the past 36 hours. This correction has the pair knocking on the door of initial NZD resistance around AUD support So far that level has capped NZD gains and while this level contains the price action, a resumption of pressure on the NZD should not be ruled out. Weakness in the New Zealand dollar has been a driver with dairy prices taking another big fall. But the cross has also been driven lower by a solid performance from the Australian dollar. The AUD has been one of the better performing currencies over the past few weeks. With the pair holding below above the risk has dramatically heightened that we could see by the end of the year. We have the RBNZ rate meeting next week to draw focus along with Australian data in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment and employment change The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 2nd Sept PM NZT The past week has seen a period of consolidation for this pair with prices largely drifting back and forward in a tight range between and and Key support around resistance around has never really been tested, and this suggests a corrective bounce back in demand for the NZD should eventuate at some stage. The level would be the initial target for any such correction, with support providing the next target should level that be overcome. There is plenty of data this week that could influence the pair starting with this afternoons RBA rate statement. The focus will be on the strength of language from the central bank around the current level of the Australian dollar. Then tonight we have the latest global dairy trade auction from Fonterra, the result of which could easily influence the value of the NZD. Key support comes in around resistance and we have yet to see a real test of that area. I still feel that level will contain the NZ dollar downside for now, and we could easily see a significant bounce develop from there which would target and possible even From NZ the economic calendar is looking very light with only the overseas trade index to draw focus. While from Australia we have building approvals, the current account, the RBA rate statement, GDP, retails sales and the trade balance The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 26th Aug PM NZT The New Zealand dollar has maintained its downside bias, although the majority of losses this week came in the space of a few minutes yesterday morning. In very thin market conditions on Monday morning the New Zealand dollar came under heavy selling pressure in the absence of any fundamental news. It seems a flow came to market that triggered the selling and there may well have been some stop loss orders against the AUD below above which exaggerated the move. The pair now looks very likely to test the key support area of resistance at in the near term. I expect that level to contain the NZD downside for now, and we should see a significant bounce. Those looking to sell NZD and buy AUD should take advantage of any such bounce as the tide has certainly turned on this pair and it is increasingly unlikely we will see levels over under again. Resistance on the topside comes in around support around and then again around and one of those two level is likely to cap any potential bounce. From NZ this week we still have building consents and business confidence to come. The pair broke below support around above resistance at on Tuesday in the wake of soft NZ producer prices data and has traded to a low so far of high of The level now acts as NZD resistance, and while the market trades below there the risks are still skewed to the NZ dollar downside. The psychological level of provides only minor NZD support and below that the market will target the major support level of resistance level of That is a realistic target over the coming weeks. Next week from New Zealand we have the trade balance, building consents, and business confidence data to draw focus. While from Australia the calendar is a little lighter with only construction work done and private capital expenditure data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 19th Aug PM NZT Over the past four weeks this pair had settled into a comfortable range trading between and Earlier this morning however, the lower NZ dollar end of that range gave way which triggered some stop loss selling. The move was driven by very soft producer prices data out of New Zealand forex would suggest there is little in the way of pipeline inflation pressure in the economy. This immediately saw the NZD come under pressure and the pair trade down through up through The Australian dollar has also benefited from mostly improving data over the past week and it was given another small boost after the RBA minutes were released. When the pair pushed belowthe focus remains on the downside and a test of the psychologically important level Below there and support at resistance beckons. It seems likely that this will continue in the coming week or so at least. With expectation for both central banks to leave monetary policy setting unchanged through to the end of the year at least, there appears to be little chance of a material shift in demand for either currency. The new formed inter bank trading range of offers target points for those looking to transact with the luxury of time on their side. Certainly the pair seems a lot more comfortable around current levels, than it did just a few weeks ago The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 12th Aug PM NZT The past month has seen a dramatic fall from the NZ dollar in this pair from to a low so far of high of It now looks like that NZ dollar downside momentum has waned and for the time being we rate stuck between support around resistance and resistance around support around Those two levels have contained the pair for just over two weeks now and there seems little impetus to break out of that range in the near term. Data this week from Australia that could influence includes consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations. After that data also disappointed the market it was the Australian dollars turn to feel the heat as sellers jumped all over it. This caused the NZD to sharply recover all the previously lost ground and the pair now trades back around Support around resistance around has now contained the NZD weakness on three separate occasions over the past couple of months and the sharp recoveries seen after each attempt suggest it will continue to provide a formidable barrier on the downside. While from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, the wage price index and inflation expectations The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 5th Aug PM NZT This pair saw the NZ dollar recover strongly off the resistance area last week, although the NZD upside momentum seem to have run out of steam in the last couple of days. The cross seems comfortable trading around the area at the moment, however we have a number of releases over the coming days that could impact. This was the low end of expectation and immediately saw the NZD under pressure. The pair traded down to key support around resistancebriefly moving through there and making a low of highbefore the NZ dollar recovered. But it seems the failure to convincingly move below that NZ dollar support has sparked a corrective bounce and so far that has taken is all the way to down to This move could easily extend further toward before running into further AUD support. There is plenty of data to drive prices next week with retail sales, the RBA rate statement and employment change all set for release from Australia. From NZ, we also get employment data along with the labour cost index The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 29th July PM NZT The past two weeks have seen dramatic declines for this pair from levels around to a low of so far. The driving force has been weakness in the New Zealand dollar, although some Australian dollar strength has played a part. At the beginning of June the pair traded down to before recovering strongly, and so far that low has not been breached. This does leave the change of a corrective bounce intact, although I would suggest we are not likely to see gains to again anytime soon. The action this week has been driven by a combination of New Zealand dollar weakness and Australian dollar strength. The AUD gained on the back of firm inflation data and positive Chinese manufacturing numbers, while the NZD came under all sorts of pressure after the RBNZ signalled a pause in the tightening cycle and jawboned the currency lower. The early June low of high of is now in sight and will likely be tested soon. Any sustained move through that level opens the way for a test of support resistance. However, that may be a step too far at this stage and we could easily see a corrective bounce from the level develop over the coming days. The much weaker than expected dairy prices weighed on the New Zealand dollar and these were followed a few hours later by softer than forecast NZ inflation. As a result the cross declined from just under to a low so far of high A NZD small bounce from there at the start of this week has seen the pair trade quietly around the level ever exchange. Tomorrow from Australia we get inflation data that will be closely watched, although the biggest driver for the pair this week is likely to be the RBNZ rate announcement on Thursday. Although many still expect the central bank to hike rates to 3. An expected interest rate hike by the RBNZ next week is now a much closer call and the local currency has moved to reflect this. The sharp turnaround from recent highs suggests this move has further to run, although we could easily see a corrective bounce in the short term from anywhere above initial support at resistance at I would expect to see sellers lining up to take advantage of any such bounce and this could well limit it to the level This pair was trading below above in early June and if the market continues to view the NZD as overvalued we could well trade back down there in the coming weeks. The key event for next week will be that RBNZ meeting on Wednesday. Both currencies have had a quiet week and this is reflected in the ever decreasing range of the pair. Tonight we have another Global Dairy Trade Auction, and tomorrow we get NZ inflation data. In the broader scheme of things the current level provides good value buying of Australian dollars and those with the interest should take advantage of this strength in the NZD. While from Australia we have the RBA minutes and business confidence data to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 8th July PM NZT This pair has recovered strongly since posting a low high back in early June. A couple of technical indicators are however starting to signal that momentum is waning and this should help to keep further gains limited. As the AUD gained ground on Monday and Tuesday the cross to the NZD pulled back belowbut since then the AUD has been under all sorts of pressure and as such the cross has rebounded strongly and now trades just above Poor trade balance and retail sales data did the damage to the Australian dollar along with comments from RBA Governor Stevens. The NZD on the other hand has remained surprisingly well supported in the face of falling dairy prices and solid US data, although the pressure is likely to come at some stage. However resistance around could well cap the pair and selling NZD toward that level is recommended The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 1st July PM NZT This pair remains within its recent range, albeit up towards the high NZD end of that range. The primary focus for the week comes later today as the RBA makes its monetary policy statement. It seems unlikely we will see a shift in their neutral stance today, but the statement will be very closely followed. Expect the recent ranges to continue in the near terms at least. It seems unlikely the remaining Australian data in the form of the trade balance, building approval, or retails sales, will for the pair push outside the NZD resistance AUD support this week. With this in mind current levels look to offer good value buying of AUD with NZD. Strong Chinese manufacturing data early in the week saw the AUD outperform. However, this was short lived as the disappointing US numbers pushed global interest rates lower. Lower global yields saw the demand for the NZD increase, because of the relatively high NZ rates. This increased demand saw various rounds of stop loss NZD buying push the pair through initial resistance at supportand the pair now looks to be consolidating at the relatively elevated NZD levels. Further gains from the NZD are likely to be much harder fought, and current levels offer good value buying of AUD with NZ dollars The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 24th June PM NZT This pair continues to trade in a relatively narrow band, towards the higher NZD part of the wider trading band. There is little economic news due in either economy to materially move rates this week, albeit the AUD mildly outperformed yesterday after the Chinese manufacturing numbers. The resistance around the support really has stalled the NZD movement however, and this was helped by the under expectation For number yesterday. The NZD is close to the top of the recent range, and looks to offer good value buying of Australian dollars around the current levels. Expect further range trading from this pair next week, with little in the way of material economic news expected from either economy. Its seems likely the rage will contain price action The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 17th June PM NZT This pair remains very well contained by its wider recent range. Since then the pair has consolidated the move towards the higher NZD end of the range. This afternoons RBA meeting minutes were of limited impact and now the focus moves to Thursdays NZ GDP number. Certainly the current levels provide an opportunity for those looking to buy Australian dollars with NZD at more economic levels than at a week or so ago. With the pair back in far more comfortable territory, immediate direction has become less clear. It seems likely that the range will contain the trading in the coming week, which has the NZ GDP numbers next Thursday as its primary focus. A speech by RBA Gov. Stevens on Monday will also be closely watched The current interbank midrate is : NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been: NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 10th June PM NZT The New Zealand dollar recovered some ground against the Australian dollar in the middle of last week, but the bounce was largely corrective and as such a resurgent AUD has again taken the lead. The AUD benefited from a stable RBA outlook and better than expected GDP data and this has driven the pair back down below above The key resistance level of support level of was never seriously tested with the market only briefly trading to before being rejected. This price action leaves the focus firmly on the downside for the time being and I still expect a test of at some stage. The big unknown on the week comes in the form of the RBNZ monetary policy statement on Thursday. Expect to to to contain trade ahead of the RBNZ decision, with price action after that largely in their hands. The pair did test the key resistance level of support at on Monday evening, but it was quickly rejected from there and the recent downtrend resumed, thanks in large part to strong Australian GDP data, taking the cross to a low of high of on Wednesday. The small bounce from that low looks to have failed just above under and this would be a negative signal for the pair. I still expect an eventual test of and only a move above below would negate that. We do however have the RBNZ monetary policy statement next week which could throw a spanner in the works. That will be the key event for next week although from Australia we also get business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 3rd June PM NZT The past week has seen a healthy correction in this pair. This caused support at resistance at to give away as the pair headed straight to a low of high of We have seen a small bounce off that low helped by weak building consents data from Australia yesterday. This caused the AUD come under pressure, but the pair still remains below the key level, which now acts as NZ dollar resistance. While below there the risks are still skewed to the downside and a move toward cannot be ruled out. Key data this week could certainly play a part. Support at resistance at that had for the most part contained the downside since mid-December, finally gave way and follow through selling took the pair straight toward The New Zealand dollar had recently started to feel the weight of declining dairy prices, and when on Wednesday we saw a substantial fall in business confidence, the pressure only increased. I would now expect a broader NZD pullback to unfold, and this should target and possibly even over the coming weeks. Only a sustained NZD recovery back above below would change that view. However from Australia we get building consents, retail sales, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, and the trade balance The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 27th May PM NZT Foreign exchange market volatility is a very low levels at the moment as is evidenced by the to to range that has contained this pair for nearly three weeks now. The top of that range was tested mid last week as the Australian dollar came under pressure on the back of soft consumer sentiment data, but gains stalled and the NZD eventually drifted lower again. The New Zealand dollar has also seen periods of pressure as the overhang of softer dairy prices continues to weigh and it seems likely this pair will see more directionless trading in the near term. From NZ this week we have business confidence and building consents figures. While from Australia we get construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure data. Key downside support comes in around resistance aroundalthough that seems pretty far away at this stage. Declining iron ore prices and soft consumer sentiment data have weighed on the AUD, while the NZD saw pressure thanks to continued falls in dairy prices. So far the topside of the pair has been capped by minor resistance around support atbut this move could easily overcome that and trade back toward This downside should be contained by over the coming week. Next week from Australia we get data on construction work done, new home sales, and private capital expenditure. While from NZ we have the trade balance, business confidence, and building consents data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 20th May PM NZT The past week has seen a continuation of very subdued trading in general across FX markets, and this pairing is no exception. A quiet range of to to has actually contained trading since the 8th May. There is little to get excited about this week either with only inflation expectations set for release from NZ. Government budgets released in both countries had little impact and the same can be said for the few economic data releases we have seen. While the market holds this level we can expect further ranging with the potential for a move up towards down towards From Australia next week we have the RBA minutes, consumer sentiment, the wage price index, and inflation expectations data to digest. To be fair there is very little going on in the wider market so far this week, although that could change over the coming days. We have the Australian budget this afternoon which could liven things up. This will be followed by retail sales from New Zealand tomorrow morning along with the RBNZ financial stability report. That all changed however, on Tuesday evening as the NZD peaked and started to pull back. This turned the tide for the NZD and since then we have seen a relentless grind lower. Downside in the NZD accelerated yesterday after Australian employment came in better than expected, which boosted the AUD significantly. So in a little over a week the pair has moved from to just under just overthen moved back again. The key level now is towardsand we could easily see another test of it over the coming days. But more than anything, recent price action just confirms the broad ranging nature of the pair for the time being The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 6th May PM NZT The New Zealand dollar has been a strong performer this week making gains against most other currencies. This afternoon we have the RBA meeting to draw focus, although few expect any surprises from the central bank. Certainly solid trade balance and building consents data have helped the NZD although the move is as much about momentum as much as anything else. With low overall FX volatility at the moment, established ranges are dominating and for the NZD-AUD pairing this means a continuation of range for the time being. Next week could prove interesting however, with NZ employment data on Wednesday and a raft of Australian releases. Each time the level has held and now, in the wake of softer than expected Australian inflation data, we have seen a strong NZD bounce. This is very positive price action and I would expect the pressure on the AUD to continue. A test of is likely over the coming days. We do however, still have the RBNZ rate meeting to digest tomorrow which adds a level of uncertainty in the very near term. This data, combined with a further reduction in dairy prices, kept the NZD on the back foot for much of the week, relative to the Australian dollar. Any break below above would warn a much deeper correction is unfolding. Later on in the week, we have business confidence and new motor vehicle sales figures that will draw focus, while from NZ we get key inflation data tomorrow. The cross rate has been driven by the timing of flows into each individual currency, with periods of relative outperformance for both the NZD and the AUD. That better than expected result boosted demand for the AUD and has driven the cross rate to the NZD down to a low of high of so far. Once again it looks like a test of key support between and resistance and could be on the cards. I would expect that level to contain the downside in the near term. The initial target for this bounce is minor resistance a support at and a failure to overcome that could well see the NZD turn lower again. Key for near term direction will be Australian employment data out on Thursday. This release will likely set the tone heading into the weekend and early next week. The market is only expecting a modest improvement in employment of k, after the previous months result surprised with a very strong k. Selling in the NZD on the back of this caused the cross to the AUD to eventually break back below abovewhich in turn triggered further selling taking the pair down to a low so far of up to This represents a significant pullback from the recent NZD highs around and the NZD losses may continue in the near term. There is support between resistance and which I now expect the market to test. This NZD support is likely to contain the downside however, as the relative growth differential between the two countries remains substantial. Data from Australia this week has also been less than supportive of the AUD, and this will encourage buyers as the market approaches that support zone. Next week we get business confidence data from both countries, along with employment change from Australia and manufacturing index from NZ The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 1st April PM NZT Up until last Thursday the Australian dollar had been outperforming the New Zealand dollar as both currencies appreciated against the USD. This pressured the NZD to AUD cross to the downside and the pair traded to a NZD low of high of But late last week the NZD saw a surge in buying, helped by some short sold positions stopping out. This caused the cross to the AUD to recover sharply from its lows and since then it has been trapped between and The immediate focus now turns to the RBA rate meeting and statement later this afternoon. The driving force was strength in the Australian dollar as it outperformed all other currencies, at least up until yesterday afternoon. If that is the case then the pair could well recover back to above below in the coming days. The level is now key. From NZ we get nationwide building consent figures along with a reading on business confidence The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 25th March PM NZT The main driver of this pair since late for week has been the relative strength in the Australian dollar. The NZD is largely unchanged from a week ago, however the AUD has put in some decent gains. There gains have come in the face of further soft Chinese data that would normally weigh on the currency. But for now the AUD seems largely unfazed. This has seen the NZDAUD cross continually grind lower AUDNZD higher and it now looks likely to test key support around resistance around A break below there could well run into stop loss sell orders and see trade quite quickly. The key support level for the pair currently comes in around resistance and I would expect to see a test of this at some stage in the coming weeks. If that level can contain the NZD downside, then the pair could turn back up and retest recent highs. Gains were made in the lead up to, and immediately after, the RBNZ rate hike on Thursday morning, but these were completely undone in the wake of Australian employment data later that afternoon. Those strong employment numbers have combined with other recent data from Australia to suggest the economy may not get much worse from here. Should that prove to be the case there may not be a lot of topside action left in this pairing. For the time being it looks like the broad range of to to will dominate. The Australian dollar was under pressure for much of the week on the back of soft data, falling commodity prices, and concerns of Chinese tomorrow defaults. The New Zealand dollar on the other hand has been supported by the expectation, and subsequent announcement, of an RBNZ rate hike. These forces had driven the cross up to a high of low of But in the last few hours we have seen Australian employment data that was much better than expected. Australian building approvals, retail sales, and trade balance all surprised on the strong side and this drove the cross down below late on Friday evening. We go a small bounce from there in the wake of US employment data as the as the New Zealand dollar held up better than the AUD in the aftermath of that release. We are now back up toward resistance around The immediate focus now turns to the RBNZ interest rate decision on Thursday morning, followed by Australian employment data later that afternoon. With little released from NZ this week the driving force has come from better than expected Australian data. Earlier this afternoon retail sales and trade balance figures hit the wires and both results were significantly stronger than forecast. This saw the Australian dollar significantly outperform the NZD and as a result the cross is now back towards Next week will prove interesting with the RBNZ meeting, along with data from Australia in the form of business confidence, consumer sentiment, inflation expectations and employment change The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 4th March PM NZT This NZD surged higher in the later stages of last week as economic releases from New Zealand and Australia highlighted the divergent paths the economies are currently on. Poor data from Australia, in particular private capital expenditure, weighed heavily on the AUD, while the NZD benefited from a trifecta of positive releases. The cross rallied all the way to before running into NZD resistance that has so far capped further NZD strength. The initial focus now turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia rate statement out later this afternoon. I suspect the risks are skewed to the downside for the AUD from this event, and this would see further strength in the NZDAUD cross AUDNZD softness. If the pair manages to break above belowthen we could be in for a retest of cycle highs around lows at Another failure at however, would likely see a move lower to support at initially. That all changed when data over the last couple of days highlighted the divergent nature of the two economies. Positive news from Fonterra combined with good trade balance and migration data to support the NZD. The opposite happened to the Australian dollar after poor readings on construction work done, and more importantly, private capital expenditure, weighed heavily. The result was a sharp move higher in the cross from to to so far. Data from Australia next week will likely be the deciding factor for further near term gains with building approvals, the RBA rate meeting, GDP, retail sales, and the trade balance all set for release The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 25th February PM NZT With no data of significance release from either country over the past week, there has been little to drive this pair. As such a tight range around has developed over the past few days. Looking at the bigger picture, there is good support below resistance above and dips under there should continue to find buyers. This would suggest an eventual move up towards down toor evenis the likeliest scenario when the pair does decide to find some direction. From New Zealand this week we get inflation expectations, the trade balance, and business confidence data. This lack of direction in the pair only serves to reinforce the view that it should remain largely range bound between and and in the lead up to next months expected RBNZ rate hike The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 18th February PM NZT The New Zealand dollar seems content at the moment to trade in a broad range between and and to the AUD. The only real volatility over the past week has come on the back of Australian data. Solid business confidence figures from Australia saw the lower end of that range tested, but the cross shot higher after Australian employment disappointed late last week. Since then the pair has drifted back towards in what can only be described as subdued trading. Weaker than expected retail sales data from NZ yesterday caused a small dip lower, but the impact has been limited. The AUD lost around one cent to the Rate in the wake of that data, and the NZD has remained elevated since then. But the dip was short lived as the New Zealand dollar also saw strength after NZ employment data come in above expectation. Since then the pair has largely been range bound. The key driver on the week could well be Australian employment data set for release on Thursday. Expectations are for a gain in employment of k. This comes despite good employment data from New Zealand which helped to support the local currency. The lows for the pair traded in the wake of the RBA policy statement, which boosted the AUD to a substantial degree. Support around resistance around briefly gave way as the pair touched a low highbut it was quickly recovered and has contained the downside since then. That has been the main driver since last Thursday and for the time being support around resistance around has contained the downside. Whether that remains the case will largely now depend on the Australian central bank when they release their rate statement later this afternoon. How they interpret the recent strong inflation data could well decide near term direction for the Australian dollar. Any move below above will bring the more important support level into play. This level should prove a lot tougher to break in the near term. Until then the weeks price action had been contained by the range. Expectations for a hike from Governor Wheeler had increased in the last week, and the NZD had held its ground as other risk assets slumped amid emerging market fears. The Australasian time-zone has seen the NZD recover from its lows. Direction from current levels will be driven by the build up to Tuesdays RBA monetary policy announcement, assuming the stop loss selling of the NZD has not been cleared. Current levels offer a good opportunity for those looking to sell AUD and buy NZD, assuming the RBNZ hike the cash rate in six weeks time The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 28th January PM NZT This pair was driven to fresh cycle highs late last week as the Australian dollar struggled in the wake of poor Chinese data and emerging market concerns. Although the latter also weighed on the New Zealand dollar to a degree, the risk of a rate hike by the RBNZ this week helped it to outperform its neighbour. The break above below was however short lived and since then we have seen a pullback toward the area. Having made solid gains in the first few weeks of this year I still feel the pair is likely to consolidate between and and for some time yet. The RBNZ rate statement on Thursday will be the primary focus this week and it will be a close call whether the central bank hikes or not. Governor Wheeler is also giving an on the record speech on Friday which will be closely followed by the market. The NZD jumped higher on the back of NZ inflation on Tuesday, and then gave back all the gains when Australia released their inflation data on Wednesday. That Australian data was much stronger than expected but the impact ended up being short lived. The negative influences of soft Chinese manufacturing data and emerging market concerns have weight on the AUD to much greater extent than the New Zealand dollar, and as a result the NZDAUD rallied up to make fresh cycle highs. The psychological level of has continued to cap further NZD gains so far although it is coming under increasing pressure. The focus for next week will be the RBNZ rate statement and potential for a hike. From Australia we get business confidence, new home sales, and producer prices data to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 21st January PM NZT The New Zealand dollar has had a strong run against the Australian dollar in the first few weeks of this year. The high of low of was touched last week in the wake of some poor Australian employment figures and although we have seen a corrective pullback since then, the risks are still skewed to the NZD topside. In the last few hours the NZD has jumped up again thanks to stronger than expected NZ inflation data. The pair broke above resistance at below support at on Tuesday evening and never looked back. The AUD got smashed after the result which drove the cross from up to a high last night of down to Having rallied nearly three cents against the AUD this week, I would suspect the psychological level of should cap further NZD appreciation in the near term. However the NZ dollar does have momentum and picking extremes is a tough game. There is now good support around the resistance around level and this should limit any potential pullback over the coming week. Next week from NZ we get inflation data and the manufacturing index. While from Australian we also have inflation, along with consumer confidence data to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 14th January PM NZT After getting rejected from resistance around support around last week, this NZD proceeded to drift lower with little in the way of fundamental news to drive it. The downside accelerated on Friday evening in the wake of the US employment report. That surprise result saw gains in the Australian dollar outpace those of the New Zealand dollar, and the pair traded down to up to as a result. In fact, it would be fair to say that recent NZDAUD AUDNZD action has been driven to a large extent by broader market flows into the respective exchange, and there has been little direct interest in the pair at current levels. It seems likely we will continue to trade between and and in the near term. The cross continues to trade comfortably between and For much of the week we have seen an upside bias as the Australian dollar underperformed against the NZD. Both currencies squeezed higher against the USD late last Friday and while the AUD has slowly retraced most of its move, the NZD has managed to hold onto the majority of its gains. This has been the driver of the NZD drifting higher over the last five days. The pair had a brief test above below but those levels could not be sustained and it has since pulled back to the more comfortable level of We may well see move toward or or over the coming months, but that is unlikely to happen in the near term and for now we can expect more ranging between the previously mentioned parameters. From NZ next week we have the NZIER business confidence survey and the house price index set for release. With no key data released from either country the pair has drifted around on the back of wider market flows in and out of each currency. The cross seems very comfortable trading between and and for the time being and these level provide the key support and resistance zones. We do get some data from Australia this week that will draw the market attention in the form of building approvals and retail sales, both released on Thursday. The cross then drifted back toward rallied up to heading into the Fed tapering announcement. However the market will need to consolidate around current levels for some time before it can attempt another crack at the NZD highs. The AUD lost ground across the board on the back of his statement, and cause the cross to the New Zealand dollar to break above below Since then the pair has managed to hold above that level although further gains have been limited. The wider trend is certainly up and this leaves the NZD topside still in focus. The New Zealand dollar saw increased demand after the RBNZ monetary policy statement as the central bank has revised up slightly its projected path for interest rates. The RBNZ also seemed largely unconcerned about the value of the NZD. This stronger NZD has combined with a weaker AUD after comments from RBA Governor Stevens when he suggested was more realistic than for the Australian currency vs the USD. As a result the cross shot up to a high We have seen a small correction since then with the pair currently trading around Gains over the last 30 hours have been dramatic, and it seems likely the pair will struggle to make further gains in the very near term. A pull back to initial support around could easily eventuate, before the upside it tested again. From NZ next week we have consumer sentiment, the current account, business confidence, and GDP data. While from Australia there is not much out in the way of data, with the highlight being minutes from the last RBA meeting on Tuesday The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 10th December PM NZT The NZ dollar has remained in demand against the Australian dollar over the last week. The mixed Australian economic data was no match for the best Terms of Trade numbers in NZ since Subsequently the NZ dollar has continued to climb and set new cycle highs against the AUD at lows The real focus in the near term will come from the RBNZ monetary policy statement in Thursday, and this is quickly followed by the latest Australian employment numbers. With the market currently expected a March hike to the NZ cash rate, any indications away from that date will garner a reaction. Whilst further gains from the NZ dollar over the AUD cannot be ruled out, further gains from the current levels should prove harder fought. Australia remains the number one export market for NZ, and the current levels will be choking Australian demand. Data from NZ remains very supportive and the same cannot be said for Australia. The cross rate made fresh cycle highs and came close to testing We have seen a pause in gains over the last 48 hours and a small retracement, that has had more to do with profit taking than any real change in direction or outlook. It seems likely the pair will again have a crack at and looking further out a test of could well be on the cards. Although we are approaching what are historically very high levels, there seems little in the near term to turn the pair around. The risks are all still skewed to the topside, however gains are likely to come at a much slower rate going forward. From Australia we have business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment change to digest The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 3rd December PM NZT Recent price action in this pair has been very NZD positive and supports the view for further NZD gains. Late last week the NZD pulled back from recent highs and tested support around resistance around Over the previous couple of months this level had provided strong NZD resistance AUD supportbut once the pair broke above there a couple of weeks ago the level then reverted to strong support. This support held well heading into the weekend, and since then we have seen a NZD bounce that has taken the pair to fresh cycle highs AUDNZD cycle lows. This is very positive price action and was helped by very good terms of trade data out of NZ yesterday, along with some soft Australian manufacturing figures. There is very little out of NZ this week to influence the pair, however from Australia there will be plenty to digest. Retail sales, the RBA rate statement, and GDP could all impact and will be closely watched. Data from both countries has surprised on the strong side and this left the NZD lacking any real momentum to push on higher. The failure to break through has seen a corrective NZD pullback ensue over the last couple of days. This pullback has taken the cross all the way back to the key back up to level which is now acting as NZD support. I would expect the pair to hold above this level and eventually drift higher again. There is little in the way of data from NZ next week to drive the pair, but from Australia there is plenty with building approvals, retail sales, the RBA rate statement, GDP, and the trade balance, all scheduled to hit the wires The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 26th November PM NZT Last week was an interesting one for this pair as key topside resistance at support at finally gave way. The driver for the move was weakness in the Australian dollar with a number of factors combining to see the AUD one of the worst performers on the week. With that key resistance level now out of the way the pair is now targeting the psychological level of support We have come close to there in the last 24 hours and can expect further attempts toward there in the coming days. This level should however prove tough to overcome in the very near term. This week from NZ we have trade balance data, business confidence, and building consents to draw focus. However, as with previous investigations, the highly elevated levels do not last long. At current levels the pair remains comfortably with the recent ranges. The weak AUD could see the NZ dollar again push towards the highs, but do not expect a dramatic extension into a new trading range in the short term. Next week is devoid of top tier economic data in either economy, with the Australian private capital expenditure numbers on Thursday offering primary focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 19th November PM NZT Last week saw this pair break above minor resistance at support at which opened the way for a test of recent highs around lows near This relative strength came even as retail sales data from NZ surprised to the downside on Thursday. The market seemed to shrug that off and has tested key resistance around on a couple of occasions in the past 48 hours. That level however provides a strong barrier on the topside and will be hard to overcome. The likely scenario will be another failure above which results in a pull back to initially. In the last hour we have seen the release of minutes from the last RBA meeting although these have had little impact. The pair looks like it wants to test recent highs above lows and came very close to doing that yesterday during some volatile price action. Dips have been limited to around rallies toand it will take a break of either of those two levels to give a clearer picture on near term direction. Any break above below will likely see a test of recent highs around lows around Selling into that strength would be recommended as that level provides strong resistance and should continue to limit topside gains in the medium term. A break below above would likely encourage further weakness toward initially. From NZ this week we have the RBNZ financial stability report on Wednesday and retails sales on Thursday. Whilst the NZ dollar has seen increased demand for the most part, the inability to consolidate through the has seen the pair move back to territory that can be considered fair value in the current environment. The mixed news in Australia, and better NZ employment stats have provided the NZD upside bias for the week. Looking forward there appears to be little that will budge the pairing from its familiar recent range. The quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement later on today provides the final focus for the week. Looking to next week sees a relatively light economic calendar which will likely further enhance the contained nature of the price action for this pair. Loading of orders at targeted level will benefit those looking to exchange towards the wider levels of the recent trading band The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 5th November PM NZT The NZD recovered off lows against the AUD around in the early stages of last week and since then has maintained a small upside bias. This has seen the pair test the key level which is where the cross broke through during the previous week. It would take a sustained move above this level now good NZD resistance to bring the topside back into focus. The pair did have an attempt up through this level in the dying hours of last week amid very thin liquidity, but it seems that move was more about triggering orders stop loss orders above down through than a genuine NZD break higher AUD lower. As a result the cross drifted back in the early stages of Monday and currently trades around the more comfortable area. Key influences this week will be the RBA statement today and then employment data from both countries later in the week. The RBA a likely to suggest the Australian dollar is overvalued and this could see it depreciate against the NZD somewhat. That recovery took it up to resistance around support last night, but so far that has capped the topside is the key level the pair broke down through the previous week, so reaction here will be important. A failure recover the level will likely see the NZD downside tested again. But a move back above below would be a NZD positive signal and should lead to further NZD gains. There has been no key factor to dive the pair this week. Next week could be a big one for Australia with the RBA rate statement, trade balance, and employment data to draw focus. His efforts to talk the AUD down are certainly having an impact and it will be interesting to see how much further the cross will rally as a result. We could easily retest the key level, and reaction here will be important. Later this week from Australia we get building approvals and new home sales, and then on Friday we have producer prices data. But the key event for the pair this week could well be the RBNZ rate review and statement on Thursday. That data was stronger than expected and give the Australian dollar a sharp boost. This increase in demand for the AUD was enough to push the cross to the New Zealand dollar down through key support at resistancea level that had held the down side on a number of attempts over the previous two weeks. With the NZD support level out of the way the market quickly traded to before attempting a recovery. But with support now acting as good topside NZD resistance, it capped the NZD bounce and the market turn back down again. From Australia we have new home sales, building approvals, private sector credit, and producer prices The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 22nd October PM NZT This pair has remained trapped within the recent range although it is currently testing support at the lower NZD end of those parameters. Some relative strength in the New Zealand dollar last week after stronger inflation data saw the pair up to down tobut gains could not be sustained and as a result we have now drifted down to key NZD support. There has been little fundamental news to drive the pair since mid-last week, and we await Australian inflation data tomorrow and NZ trade balance the day after to possible provide a lead. Trading then drifted lower until NZ inflation data lifted the New Zealand dollar and the cross moved back up to down to But again that level capped the topside and in the last few hours the pair has retreated to now trade back down below above A lot of the focus this week has been on the political situation in the US and action in exchange cross has been dictated by relative flows into each individual currency. But the repeated failure to overcome now puts the downside back in play. We could well have a more concerted crack at support around resistance Should that break, it could signal the start of a much deeper correction. From NZ next week we have only credit card spending and trade balance data, while from Australia we get inflation data and the RBA annual report The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 15th October PM NZT With little in the way of fundamental news from either country to drive this pair recently, the price action has been contained with key support and resistance levels. On the down side that level is upside resistance and it was tested last week. The failure to break this level has seen a NZD bounce and the pair has traded back up as high as low Price action in the last few hours though has seen further NZD pressure just below the level above On the topside key resistance comes in around supportwhere the pair has had three failed break attempts. Until either of those levels are broken we can expect further range trading. Later this week from Australia we get business confidence data, and a speech from RBA Governor Stevens to focus on. Repeated failures above below over previous weeks have taken their toll and the NZD has been heavy for the last few days. Last night the cross traded down to test initial support at resistance So far that level has held but the NZD bounce has been less than convincing. This latest bout of NZD under performance comes even after the market was disappointed with Australian employment data which put the AUD under pressure yesterday. Next week from Australia we get the minutes from the latest RBA along with data on home loans and motor vehicle sales. From New Zealand we have inflation data on Wednesday to draw focus The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 8th October PM NZT This pair has been relatively quiet since big swings on Tuesday and Wednesday last week. Those swings were driven firstly by the RBA statement, then by comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler, but since then the pair has settled into trading comfortable around Business confidence data from New Zealand this morning had little impact, as should the manufacturing index on Thursday. Data from Australia this week could well influence the cross however with consumer sentiment and the more important employment numbers set for release on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. The topside is protected by now strong resistance towards support and any move toward there will run into plenty of selling. After trading up to recent highs in the early stages of the week, thanks to strong NZ business confidence numbers, the cross collapsed as the Australian dollar gained support from the very neutral RBA statement. It traded down to up to before starting to recover at touch. The cross traded up to down to on the back of these comments but ran out of steam there. We have now seen three sharp rejections from above below in the last month or so and this leaves the pair looking a little vulnerable. As a result there will be plenty of willing sellers on any move above and this will make further upside action very tough. It seems likely we could get a serious test of downside support at some point soon. The level marks the first level of support and should this give way, a much deeper correction exchange develop. From Australia next week we have consumer sentiment, business confidence and employment data to digest. While from NZ we have business confidence and the manufacturing index to focus on The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 1st October PM NZT After coming under pressure in the early part of last week this pairing bounced from the sold off from level, forex since then we have seen a recovery all the way back up to recent NZD highs. Last night traded which is exactly the same level as the NZ dollar peaked at on the 21st of September, and only a few points shy of the peak bottom from 31st July. So there is big resistance around the support around level, which has so far capped the New Zealand dollar. Expect that to continue ahead of the RBA policy statement later this afternoon. That will likely be the tomorrow factor for near term direction of the cross. Any break above below will open the way for further NZD gains with an initial target of the psychologically important level. The pair traded down to high before NZD buyers stepped back in. Since then we have seen a continual grind higher and the cross currently trades around Direction from here is a tough call. What seemed like a solid rejection from in the end failed to test support at and the resulting bounce suggests we could be in for more topside action. The two key levels at this point are and with a break of either suggesting a broader move is in play. In the meantime expect the range trading to continue. Early next week we have the RBA rate decision and statement to digest, along with building approvals and trade balance data. From NZ there is only business confidence and building consents data scheduled for release The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 24th September PM NZT The New Zealand dollar materially outperformed the Australian dollar last week helped by some decent current account and GDP data. This helped the NZD sustain most of its post Fed announcement gains, while the AUD drifted lower and gave back much of the ground it had made. That saw the NZDAUD cross continue to grind higher into the weekend and it traded up to down towhich is just below the previous high of low of The failure to break through that 31 July high has seen the pair pull back and it currently trades around We could easily see some further weakness down to initial support now coming in at resistance at But as long at the pair holds above there the risk is it will build a base for another attempt at recent highs. There is very little out of either country this week. Since then the NZD has materially outperformed the AUD and looks to be grinding its way to retest the late July high of low of Reaction at that level will be key to near term direction. A sharp reversal from there will probably see a broader correction lower, and a test of support now at resistance at But while the cross holds above this level the focus is still on the topside. That has left the picture looking positive once again for the NZD, as long as support at resistance hold any downside tests. The pair did pull back to rallied to yesterday, but has since bounced and currently trades near The RBA minutes this afternoon have had little impact, confirming the banks more neutral stance. In New Zealand we get the important 2nd quarter GDP number on Thursday to digest. Strength in the New Zealand dollar after the RBNZ monetary policy statement was even more impressive in the face of the Australian dollar that took a battering in the wake of their poor employment data. The NZ dollar gained the better part of points peaking at low last night before retracing a touch. We could see some more near term weakness but it should be limited to support around resistance The risks are all now back on the NZD upside, and another test over under can be expected next week. The only release of note from Australia next week will be the RBA minutes. While from NZ we get current account, consumer sentiment and GDP data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 10th September PM NZT Since breaking down below key support and trading to a low of last week, the New Zealand dollar has staged something of a recovery against the Australian dollar. That recovery peaked at on Friday evening and leaves the near term picture very muddled. Although I still favour another test of the down side, the risks are very evenly balanced and direction from here is a tough call. The current level of is pretty close to the middle of the expected range for the rest of the week. The last two trading days have seen little interest in the pair and it has kept a tight range. This could well continue ahead of the RBNZ on Thursday. Better data from China and Australia combined with the more neutral stance of the RBA saw the AUD materially outperform the NZD over the course of the week. We have seen a small recovery from the NZD lows, with the pair currently sitting aroundbut the risks are all still skewed to the downside for the NZD. Only a sustained move back above resistance at below support will take the pressure off the downside for the NZD. If the pair does turn back down from here we can target a test of sub over Next week the RBNZ monetary policy statement will draw focus, while from Australia we get business confidence, consumer sentiment, and employment data The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 3rd September PM NZT This pair lacked any real direction last week as both the NZD and AUD were under pressure due to wider market risk aversion. The cross has maintained a tight range between and and and these parameters have defined trade into the early part of this week as well. The broader trend is for the NZD to continue to move up and I expect another test of over the coming weeks. However momentum for such a move seems lacking at the moment. There is little out of NZ this week to drive the pair so attention will turn to Australian data, and in particular the RBA rate decision this afternoon. In the last hour we have seen Australian retail sales figures that came in below expectation and have weight on the AUD a touch. Since then we have seen a gradual appreciation of the New Zealand dollar over the Australian dollar. Our current view is for a continued gradual appreciation of the pair back towardsover the coming weeks. As long as the pair holds above key trend support near the focus remains on the topside and an eventual test of recent highs. The picture could change rapidly with a move below as I expect long term stop loss orders to be building under that level. There were two key drivers for this. While the AUD has benefited from a surprising rebound seen in a survey of Chinese manufacturing. Both these factors have helped to pull the cross down from highs of lows of seen early in the week. This pullback has yet to threaten the overall broader uptrend that has been in place since March. It would take a move below to put that in doubt. Next week from NZ we have trade balance, business confidence, and building consents to focus on. While out of Australia there is data on construction, home sales, and private sector credit The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 20th August PM NZT There has been over the last week little to change the current outlook for the pair. The recent range of looks set to continue for the time being as the New Zealand dollar consolidates recent gains against the Australian dollar. With the broader trend in favour of further NZD appreciation we can expect a break above at some stage. However it seems the NZD will need to do some more work below before it can attempt a break higher. Much of this week has been spent grinding higher from lower from as the New Zealand dollar outperformed the Australian dollar. The appreciation in the NZD relative to the AUD was helped by solid retail sales data from NZ, and very subdued data out of Australia. The outlook for the pair is for further gains in the long run, however the near term will most likely see more consolidation within the current range. Next week we get the minutes from the latest RBA policy meeting, while from NZ we have producer prices and inflation expectations The current interbank midrate is NZDAUD AUDNZD The interbank range this week has been NZDAUD AUDNZD Tuesday 13th August PM NZT The New Zealand dollar seems content for now to consolidate recent gains against the Australian dollar, and seeing the pair trade within the broad range. After solid gains over the past few weeks, this consolidation can only be healthy. We could even see a pullback to around without troubling the border uptrend. I would however expect to find plenty of buyers around that level and would be very surprised to a move below there. As the NZD recovered so did this pair trading to a high of low of yesterday. The pair gave up some of that ground however in the wake of the better than expected Chinese trade data. That release saw a material increase in demand for Australian dollars and saw the cross to the NZD pull back to Since then trade has been somewhat subdued. The broad picture is one of a solid uptrend in the pair. Accordingly the currency spent much of the day gradually recovering. The market has almost fully priced in the expectation of a 25 point rate cut.
CAIIB - Banking Financial Management - Exchange Rate And Forex Exchange - Part 1
CAIIB - Banking Financial Management - Exchange Rate And Forex Exchange - Part 1
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